KLaw on Bryce Harper

It's buried behind the Insider moat, but here's a snippet of Keith's take on the Baseball Jesus:

Bryce Harper is good at just about everything and bad at just about nothing. He can hit, throw, field and run. And power? He's got it in spades.

Harper's best asset as a hitter is his strength; not muscle or bulk but hand and wrist strength, so that when he makes contact the ball takes off with uncanny power for someone his age. He launches balls in batting practice out to right and right-center and can drive the ball easily to the left-center wall. He's still wiry but has plenty of room to fill out and eventually make his listed weight -- a heavy 205 pounds -- a reality. He loads with his hands well behind his back shoulder, so he nearly bars out his front arm, adding some length to the swing. But he strides into the ball and rotates his hips well with his swing and has good hand-eye coordination, so the result is a lot of contact and the big raw power for which he's become known. He's an above-average runner now and should settle in as at least average even if he fills out completely.
[...]
There won't likely be another player in the 2010 draft class who can match Harper's combination of present talent and tremendous upside, especially not among position players in the draft pool. If Harper reaches his ceiling, and stays behind the plate, he could be a Joe Mauer type, hitting for average and power while providing plus defense at a critical and hard-to-fill position.

In other words, Bryce Harper is the greatest thing since Matt Wieters invented sliced bread.

The #1 overall pick is a total crapshoot

If you like lists, the draft and nostalgia... here ya go: the #1 pick in every MLB draft since 1984...

• 1984: Shawn Abner, New York Mets
• 1985: B.J. Surhoff, Milwaukee Brewers
• 1986: Jeff King, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 1987: Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
• 1988: Andy Benes, San Diego Padres
• 1989: Ben McDonald, Baltimore Orioles
• 1990: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
• 1991: Brien Taylor, New York Yankees
• 1992: Phil Nevin, Houston Astros
• 1993: Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
• 1994: Paul Wilson, New York Mets
• 1995: Darin Erstad, California Angels
• 1996: Kris Benson, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 1997: Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers
• 1998: Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
• 1999: Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
• 2000: Adrian Gonzalez, Florida Marlins
• 2001: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
• 2002: Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 2003: Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
• 2004: Matt Bush, San Diego Padres
• 2005: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
• 2006: Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
• 2007: David Price, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
• 2008: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays

For every Chipper, Junior or ARod, you get a bunch of Bryan Bullingtons, Brien Taylors, Matt Bushs or Jeff Kings. Good luck, Strasburg.

Call it in the air...

Feeling a draft, MLB-style

The First-Year Player Draft begins June 9 at 6 p.m. ET and lasts 3 days. The MLB Network will cover every mind-numbing minute of it.

Not that I don't love the draft. I LOVE all drafts, any draft, but the players are not there in person and we won't likely see them for years, save a few. Sure, we might see Strasburg if he, Boras and the Nots can somehow agree to a record-setting deal before the deadline. Doubtful, I know.

Because, I 1) focus on the Yanks and 2) I am not a draftnik like Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo, I have to trust the projections and reports. I got an interesting email last night from a trusted source who claims to have "an uber-inside source [on] the Yankees". The source confirms what several mock drafts have projected: the Yanks are hoping to select Cal-Berkley CF Brett Jackson.

My guy mentioned to me: "Yankees sent him to the optometrist today where he tested for 20/10 vision. If Jackson is on the board they are going to take him, but the Yanks are hearing that the Twins, Astros, Nationals, (all ahead of the Yanks are very interested)."

Additionally: The Giants have had him over twice for batting practice in the last week and are considering taking him 6th overall, which many think is a major reach. The Giants indicated there is 1 other player they could take at 6th overall and think its 50/50 he will still be on the board. If that player is gone, they'll take Jackson who they like because he is local and a safe bet to produce. They are talking numbers with his agent.

Mock drafts to check out:

• MLB.com
• Yankees.com
• ESPN.com (draft philosophies)
• ESPN.com (Keith Law's Top 100)
• ESPN.com (scouting reports)
• The Sporting News
• MyMLBDraft
• MLBDraftSite

Here's one I don't get

Wasn't this kid pretty highly regarded not that long ago? Wasn't he included in several trade rumors, too? Suddenly, he's DFA'd (along with Eric Hacker) and, like Hacker, a member of the Pirates?

The Pirates have claimed right-handed reliever Steven Jackson off waivers from the New York Yankees.

Jackson, 27, had a 1.88 ERA and one save in seven appearances for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre before being designated for assignment May 8. Last season, Jackson had a 4.18 ERA in 49 appearances split between Class AA and AAA. That included a 0.87 ERA in 19 appearances after the All-Star break, all in Class AAA.

Wonder what he did to get that DFA considering he had a 1.88 ERA at the time? Anyone have any insight? With the Yanks bullpen struggling, how could they let a guy who was seemingly performing well in AAA just hit the trash heap? Someone help me, please. Though, if I had to guess, it's an issue of the 40 man roster (Kevin Cash called up; Tomko's call up got Hacker punted).

Also: Do I have to withhold my "are the Pirates now a Yankees minor league affiliate?" joke? What? Too late? Sorry.

Nady's done, possible implications for 2010?

If the reports are indeed true that Nady needs TJS and will be lost for the year, what are the implications for the Yanks? Some quick thoughts to ponder:

• If he's on the 60 day DL, does he accrue the time to be a free agent after this year anyways? I don't know the answer but it seems a reasonable question.
  
  
• Do the Yanks offer him arbitration?
  
  
• If yes, will he accept as he'd want a year of good performance (healthy playing) before diving into the FA pool?
  
  If yes, will Boras instruct him to decline anyways as that's Boras' M.O.?
  
  If yes, his arb figure will be based upon his $6.55m salary this year, which isn't terrible, unlike Abreu's arb figure last year ($16m). That's pretty managable if the team decided to risk the arb offer.
  
  
• Who do the Yanks bring up to fill out the bench? I can't see them bringing up Austin Jackson to ride the pine. Shelley Duncan, maybe? Another farmhand?

Aaron Gleeman, at his vacation spot at Circling the Bases, had this to say:

However, making Swisher an everyday player significantly weakens New York's bench, which now essentially consists of Melky Cabrera, Ramiro Pena, and Jose Molina. Calling up either Shelley Duncan or Juan Miranda to take Nady's spot on the roster will give them a usable bat off the bench, but with Hideki Matsui stuck at designated hitter for a while Cabrera is in line to get any extra outfield at-bats.

I don't think it materially weakens the bench. Swisher was outperforming Nady anyways. It requires Matsui to play more and actually DO SOMETHING when he's at the plate. The Yanks are a better team when Damon's playing (at least offensively) anyways.

Bottom line, this is not something to panic over.

And this should be fun

So Wang was terrible last night. What better way to end a season-starting 0-2 hole than to run up newcomer AJ Burnett? Nothing could possibly go wrong, could it?

Sabathia, Wang and Burnett were supposed to be a one-two-three combination that knocked out opponents. Two games into the season, and it's the Yankees starters who are leaving the mound bowed and bloody. Burnett gets the start against the Orioles today. He'd better be throwing lightning bolts or the Yankees will be looking foolish before they get back to their new billion dollar palace in the Bronx next week.

It's still early and there's no need to panic. Joe Girardi and his players said as much, over and over, following the Yankees' 7-5 loss to the Orioles at Camden Yards Wednesday night. Remember 1998 when the team went 1-4 to start and finished with 114 wins, they say.

At 0-2 with 160 to play, no one is jumping off a bridge. But considering the Yankees spent $161 million for Sabathia and $82.5 million for Burnett and not to mention the $180 million for Mark Teixeira, who is 1-for-Baltimore in two games, this is past disappointing. This is embarrassing.

Holy crap, guys. Seriously? Do we need a refresher course in both history and perspective?

Sabathia was dreadful last April and Teix is a notoriously slow starter. Expecting CC to roll a complete game and Teix start 5-8 with 2 HR and 5 RBI is just not fair. Deep breath, fellow Yanks fans. Cleansing breath. Leave the panic to the lame writers.

But since the writers and some overly zealous fans seemed to have forgotten:

• Sabathia
  (March/April 2008): 1-4 record, 7.88 ERA, 6 HR allowed, 1.94 K/BB ratio.
  Highest monthly ERA rest of the year: May, 2.44.
  K/BB ratio May-Sept 2008: 5.19.


• Teixeira
  (March/April Career): 130 games, 0.254 BA, 0.344 OBP, 0.438 SLG, 19 HR (1:26.3 AB)
  2008, by Month:
  March/April: 0.273/0.333/0.464
  May: 0.268/0.379/0.412
  June: 0.287/.0424/0.617
  July: 0.307/0.430/0.545
  August: 0.386/0.479/0.663 (holy crap!)
  Sept/Oct: 0.333/0.417/0.631

So, let's not get too crazy just yet. If Burnett gets hurt while serving up a grand slam tonite, I will get the pitchforks and torches, of course.

Going on the cheap, bullpen style

I guess I find it funny. Some have been deriding the Yanks' bullpen because it consists largely of youngsters, but aren't those the same youngsters that others say the Yanks don't have enough of (yeah, they need young position players, I get it...)? That Joba should be a set up guy because the team lacks a proven one....

So courtesy of Pete Abe ("LoHud of the Rings"), here are the salary figures (bonuses included) for the middle relief corps:

• Damaso Marte: $3.75 million
• Brian Bruney: $1.25 million
• Jose Veras: $432,975
• Edwar Ramirez: $422,500
• Phil Coke: $403,300
• Jonathan Albaladejo: $403,075
• TOTAL: $6,661,850

I spy with my little eye: Jeter's heir apparent

For the longest time, I've been wondering who eventually takes Jeter's spot at SS, whenever the opening appears. I've read a bunch about various glovemen over the last few years, but none could hold a bat. But now, there appears to be a front runner:

Fact is, Pena has always demonstrated world class defense since being signed by the Yankees out of Mexico in 2005, but his improvement with the bat is what's elevated him to legitimate major league prospect status.

"When I first saw him three years ago, you could knock the bat out of his hands," said one veteran scout whose primary assignment is in the minor leagues. "But he was a magician with the glove and that made him someone to keep an eye on.

Now that he's gained a little weight, put on a little muscle, he's no longer an 'out'. He can handle the bat. I always felt his glove would get him to the big leagues, but now I can see him as an everyday shortstop."
[...]
"Best looking young shortstop I've seen in a couple of years," said one National League scout.

Well, we seem to have our answer. The only question left to answer is: when?

Another look at the Yanks farm system

Not a ranking, but a good preview of some of the higher-potential, upper-eschelon players the Yanks can look forward to seeing in pinstripes soon trading away for other teams over-priced players.

A sample:

Mark Melancon has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and he flew threw the minor league system while playing at three levels in 2008, including his final stop at Triple-A. At the senior level, Melancon allowed just 11 hits in 20 innings pitched. He also walked just four with 22 strikeouts. In total, the right-hander allowed 69 hits in 95 innings. Impressively, his strikeout rate rose during each promotion and topped out at 9.90 K/9 in Triple-A. Melancon, 23, is in a perfect position to help out in New York in 2009.

Arguably the Yankees’ best prospect, outfielder Austin Jackson is still raw in many facets of his game, but his tools and potential are undeniable. Only 22, he had a solid season in Double-A last year with a line of .285/.354/.419 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases in 520 at-bats. He also posted rates of 9.7 BB% and 21.7 K%. He didn’t run a lot last year and he also does not have a ton of home run power in his bat. That said, he is a solid all-around player who does a little bit of everything and plays above-average defense. Jackson could very be patrolling center field for the Yankees before the end of 2009.

Jesus Montero has the potential to be a monster offensive player in the big leagues. He’s only 19 and will be playing at High-A ball in 2009. Last season in A-ball, Montero hit .326/.376/.491 with 17 home runs and 87 RBI in 525 at-bats. He walked just 6.6% of the time and posted a strikeout rate of 15.8 K%, which is excellent for a young power hitter. Montero’s defense behind the plate has improved, but it’s still below average and there are not many people who think he’ll remain a catcher for longer. He could be in New York in 2010, especially if it’s at 1B, DH or LF.

Of course, A-Jax hit a grand slam against the Sox yesterday and promptly got returned to the minors.

More breathless anticipation of Strasburg

The Strasburg Watch is fully manned and there are plenty of seats on the bandwagon. Just check the gushing comments from a NL scout:

“The scary thing is he could develop a little more velocity in the next couple of years,” said a scout from a National League team. “He absolutely could be recognized as the fastest pitcher ever, at least since pitches have been clocked."

However, this article is not just a massive ego-stroke for Strasburg's brag book; there's a pretty good story about how he came into college unheralded and soft and turned himself into what he's quickly becomming.

Strasburg wasn’t always in such fast company. He’d been at San Diego State all of a week in 2006 and he was doubled over in the corner of the dugout, heaving and vomiting after a routine conditioning workout.

Tony Gwynn, the Hall of Famer and the Aztecs’ coach, shook his head. The sorry spectacle confirmed everything he feared about the freshman pitcher. Filter had convinced Gwynn to give a scholarship to Strasburg, a local kid nobody else wanted.

One thought kept coming back to Gwynn: How can somebody who throws so hard be so soft?

Sure, Strasburg could throw 91 mph, but he was a good 30 pounds overweight. He couldn’t run a few laps without getting sick. He didn’t know how to bench press. The school’s conditioning coach nicknamed him “Slothburg” and told him he ought to quit on the spot.

In addition, there's some comparison to other hard-throwing guys and the fates that befell them.

If Strasburg knows anything about Zumaya, Wohlers or Anderson, he doesn’t let on. If he realizes that none of them accomplished much more than a record reading on a radar gun, he doesn’t say. Zumaya is out again with another injury in a never-ending string. Wohlers lost his control and flamed out quickly. Anderson, the first pick in the 1997 draft, lost his velocity and career to a bum shoulder.

Bummer: Hacker sent to minor league camp

Well, he opened a few eyes during his stay so far, but our FOTB Eric Hacker has been sent to the minor league camp. We will continue to watch him as closely as we can and welcome him to send us updates anytime he wishes.

Meanwhile Eric Hacker and Wilkin De La Rosa were sent to the minor league camp.

Bummer. Keep in touch, Eric. We mean it.

From Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Chad Jennings has this summary of Hacker's spring thus far and his 2009 outlook:

Spring numbers: Counting his rough outing against Team USA, Hacker had an 18.00 ERA through three games. Not counting that exhibition game, he allowed one run, two walks and three hits through two innings.
Destination: Slowed by injuries throughout his career, Hacker turns 26 later this month and has yet to spend a full season above Class A. He could open back in Trenton this year, but he had a 2.70 ERA through 17 starts there last season and his age might make it worth while to push him quickly. He and George Kontos both seem to be on the Double-A/Triple-A bubble.
Expectation: When he's been healthy, Hacker has pitched well with a 2.70 career ERA in the minors. Injuries, though, cost him all of 2004 and all of 2006. If he's healthy, the expectations seem to be pretty high. The fact he's had two healthy years in a row -- both with good numbers -- seems like a good sign.

Surviving ARod's absence

The silly "Yanks are better off without ARod" type articles are nearly as bad as the "Yanks can't live without ARod" rebuttals. Honestly, I have tried hard to read neither. The Yanks have a huge hole to fill at 3b and in the middle of the lineup. No matter how much you hate, revile, mock, despise (insert your choice here) ARod as a person, you can't discount his incredible abilities on the field.

So while I think he will be missed, I also think the Yanks can do well thanks to the fact that they added two superb pitchers this off-season to front what was merely a good rotation and nothing more. CC and Burnett, in front of Wang, Pettitte and Joba should anchor the rotation and help cure the ills that a lineup sans ARod suffers from.

From Boston beat writer Nick Cafardo:

For the last five years, A-Rod has averaged 42 homers and 123 RBIs, but the Yankees have not won a championship. You can't blame that all on him.

What could help the Yankees ride this out is their superior starting pitching. Don't forget, it was pitching and defense that won them championships.

"It hurts not having A-Rod, but I'm not sure it kills them," said another AL GM. "When they throw those five starters at you, that's awfully tough. They still have good hitters who can score runs, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet they're trying to get another hitter in that lineup."

Yep, that's spot on.

Some farm notes

From Chad Jennings and his chat with Yanks vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman:

Eric Fryer will most likely open the season in Tampa, where the Yankees are set and then some with Jesus Montero and Austin Romine at catcher. With that in mind, Newman's take on Fryer's playing time was exactly what you would expect. “We’ll see how it goes, have to see how that whole thing shakes out," Newman said. "We think early in the season most of his at-bats will come at first base and the otufield.” Newman agreed that there's a solid chance Montero or Romine -- or both -- will play too well to stay in Tampa all season, so opportunities behind the plate could open by midseason. Or, Fryer could get hot and move up himself. Fryer's new, so we'll all have to "see how it goes."

Here in Scranton, the ramification of the Wright trade is more immediate than a High-A outfielder/first baseman. Newman said trading Wright increased the chances of either Eric Hacker or George Kontos opening in the Triple-A rotation, but Double-A hasn't been ruled out for either of them. In theory, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre rotation could be filled without Kontos or Hacker (could be Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, Coke and Igawa) but that's going to depend on what happens in big league camp.

From a personal level, I am hoping like heck that Eric Hacker makes the big club out of ST. I had the good fortune of interviewing Hacker here and would love to see him make the leap.

Update on Yanks pitching prospects

Chad Jennings has a good update on the upper level Yankees pitching prospects, including one on my boy Eric Hacker. Guys profiled include: Phil Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves and even Kei Igawa. Because I got to interview him here, Hacker's review is below:

Eric Hacker
Right hander
25 years old
Where he's been: Hacker is older than you might expect because he too has been hampered by injuries which cost him all of 2004 and 2006. When he's pitched, though, Hacker has a 2.70 ERA in the minors and he was outstanding last season in Tampa and Trenton.
Where he's going: I've been thinking he'll open back in Trenton, but Hacker is on the 40-man and he'll turn 26 before opening day, so a push to Triple-A has merit, especially if he gets in some games in big league camp and opens some eyes on the major league coaching staff.
Ticket to New York: Consistency. Health is too obvious and goes without saying. Hacker doesn't have massive strikeout numbers, but he also doesn't walk many guys and he gets a lot of outs on the ground. If he's steady in Triple-A, he should earn a shot. That consistency, obviously, requires that he not go back on the disabled list.

I'll be down in FLA right after P&C report. Eric, if you're reading this, I'll give you a call/email when I am down there. How's about a tour of the ballpark/facilities?

Quota reached: No Sheets, no Manny, no mas

Evidently the Yanks have hit their limit. No, not with regards to their payroll ceiling. Not with the amount of tax breaks they can get. Not with the number of luxury boxes sold.

Free agents, baby.

Try to follow, it's rather confusing and esoteric, but interesting nonetheless:

Under the rules, "if there are from 39 to 62 [Type A and B] players [during a given offseason], no team can sign more than three."
[...]
According to an unofficial list compiled by the Sports City Sports News Service, this year there were 63 Type A and Type B free agents -- 29 Type As and 34 of the Type B variety. A Type A player is one who's ranked among the top 20 percent of his group -- pitcher or position player. A Type B player is among the top 40 percent. The Elias Sports Bureau does the annual independent rankings.

"If there are more than 62 such players, the club quota shall be increased accordingly," the Basic Agreement also says.

"If there were more than 62 this year, we should have agreed on an increased quota," [Rob Manfred, Major League Baseball's executive vice president of labor relations] said. "We did not. I think if [the Yankees] were contemplating signing another Type A player, they would've read the agreement and asked us what we wanted to do. They would've said they wanted to sign a fourth player and we would've had to do something with the union."

Teams own Type A's do not count against this quota, however.

As far as the remaining Type A free agents and what their availability means:

"It's always been our position that if [a player] goes past the Draft, the compensation goes away," Manfred said, adding that it has never happened.

Remaining Type A free agents: Bobby Abreu, Orlando Cabrera, Juan Cruz, Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Mike Mussina (retired), Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets and Jason Varitek.

If Cabrera and Cruz and Varitek (if he declines the Sox offer today) wait until June, they can join any team without that team having to offer a first round pick as compensation. We can all agree that it's preposterous that a middle reliever like Juan Cruz should never be saddled with a Type A designation. I can't see any team giving up their first round pick for a middle reliever, no matter how good he is.


UPDATE (11:50am, 1/30/09): This is making me dizzy. Now it seems the Yanks haven't come close to the quota.

10:44am: Brian Cashman told Peter Abraham the Yankees could sign up to eight Type A free agents if they wanted to.

10:05am: One reader asks a question I can't answer: if the quota is three Type A/Bs, how were the Giants able to sign Jeremy Affeldt (B), Bob Howry (A), Randy Johnson (B), Edgar Renteria (A), and Juan Uribe (B)? Does it only apply to Type A/Bs who were offered arbitration? Is the quota three of each type?

7:45am: Just wanted to add the info from a January 6th Nick Cafardo article, where he stated that this year's quota is nine Type A or B free agents. Everyone I'd spoken previously to believed the Yankees have not approached any quota. I know the CBA allows for more Type A/Bs to be signed if you lose them, and the Yankees lost Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina. We attempted to tackle this in October and came away confused.

Still, Bloom talked to MLB's executive VP of labor relations Rob Manfred for his article and it seems highly unlikely that Manfred would be wrong. - Tim Dierkes

Lowered Expectations

Buster notes that some of the remaining free agents will have to lower their expectations if they want a contract this year, including former Yankee Bobby Abreu.

As recently as a week ago, the asking price on Bobby Abreu was said to be locked in place, a three-year deal for something in the neighborhood of $16 million a year. But those numbers were based on appraisals made before the motor companies got a bailout, before the Dow Jones Industrial Average shrunk to four digits.

In the past few days, Abreu -- like so many other veteran players -- has come to grips with the reality that the lush multiyear deal simply is not going to be there for him, and the All-Star who hit 20 homers and accumulated an on-base percentage of .371 this past season is said to be willing to take a one-year deal.

Sorta makes Cashman's decision not to offer him arbitration look good, doesn't it? Of course, at that time, Abreu might have declined it anyways. At the time, I thought the decision not to at least offer arbitration (and get the draft pick if he declined) was a mistake as I totally underestimated the way the market for a guy like Abreu would crater. I'm not alone.

Arbitration would have landed him that $16m he wanted. Signing him now might also get him that $16m, but it would take two years to earn it rather than one.

Bonus points for any MAD TV fans out there who appreciate the 2nd picture to the right

Joba's 2009 workload, predicted

After a weekend of book sneak-peeks that made me equally disappointed and disgusted, I'm chomping at the bit for some real baseball "stuff". Anything really that discusses the on-field product for this coming season.

So when I noticed this article about Joba's predicted 2009 innings, I couldn't help but consider it a beacon that Spring Training is indeed less than three weeks away. I can't wait. This comes from MLBTradeRumors.com leader Tim Dierkes' article on RotoAuthority:

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175

  Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160

  Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155

  Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145

  Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142

  Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142

  Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6

  Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140

  Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6

  Keith Law, ESPN: 125

  Jon Heyman, SI: 109

  The average comes to 142.9 innings.

If Joba pitches 143 innings as a starter (which isn't mentioned above), that roughly translates to 24 six-inning starts, or 29 starts of 5 innings. From LAST year's Verducci Year-After-Effect article, Joba's limit was 149 innings. I think I'd be pleased with 150 quality innings from Joba and fill in the balance with kids from the farm (Aceves, etc.). If Joba makes it to the 100, 125 inning marks unscathed and feeling strong, I'd let him expand his target. He's got the body to do so.

I continue to maintain that Joba's got the most value for the Yanks as a starter, at least until Mo retires. Then, if Joba's still struggling to maintain a 200 inning workload at that point, he could be transitioned into Mo's replacement (unless there's some kid --Melancon?-- who identifies himself as the heir apparent).

Waiting in the weeds on Peavy

I tell ya, I am not making this stuff up. Not until the ink is drying on another team's letterhead will I believe Peavy won't wind up in NY. There been a confluence of factors that keep pointing back to the Yanks (Braves trading for Vazquez, Cubs resigning Dempster, economy worsening, Yanks looking to gobble up as much SP as possible, glut of OF's, etc.).

If the Yankees come up empty on Sabathia, Burnett and Lowe, they could try to make a push for San Diego's Jake Peavy, who remains on the trading block. A club official confirmed the Yankees' interest in Peavy, though he noted that the 2007 NL Cy Young winner has made it clear that he has no desire to pitch in the AL.

Peavy has a full no-trade clause, but as the Padres desperately look to dump payroll - San Diego Thursday dealt shortstop Khalil Greene and his $6.5 million salary to the Cardinals for a pair of prospects - they could ask him to add teams to his list.

"As of now, we have not discussed Jake's willingness to accept a trade to the Yankees," [Peavy's agent, Barry] Axelrod, said in an e-mail. "Simply stated, we have taken the position that we will not spend time analyzing any potential trade until the Padres present it to us as a real possibility. Until then, we sit and wait."

Just like the Yankees.

Except I don't think that the Peavy situation is a binary one. I think the Yanks will take a run at him regardless of who else they sign and no matter the timing, if the Padres asking price becomes palatable.

Settle down, fellas

I've gotten a number of emails and IM's wondering any number of things related to the Yanks and Sabathia:

• Why hasn't he signed?
• Doesn't this look bad for the Yanks?
• What if the Yanks don't get any of the big pitchers available?
• 摩登美发课??摩登优女帮强档美容课堂，为女性度身定做的贴心课堂
• The incredible pet nail trimmer
• Increase you income by becomming a Sociologist!

The last three are actual emails, scary as it might seem (I didn't print any of the adult-themed ones!).

Ten things to consider:

1. Sabathia would rather be in California, all things equal. So would I, if the truth be told.
2. All things are not equal; the Yanks can pay more than anyone and will likely do so.
3. Sabathia might really test the "It's About The Money, Stupid" mantra
4. Sabathia is taking his time on this major life decision. He has that right and good for him to take it. It might be a no-brainer for you and I, but he should be allowed the time to make up his mind. The last thing I'd want is for him to suffer from buyer's remorse.
5. Sabathia is probably hoping to see either LA team make an offer, though it appears the Dodgers won't have the wherewithal to do so.
6. His hometown Giants have just overpaid for Renteria and do not appear to have the pockets to pay two pitchers (CC and Zito) a combined $40+ million.
7. I don't think this reflects negatively on the Yanks; if they were located in LA, this would have been done already.
8. The Yanks are not the destination they were in 2000, 2001, 2002, when they were making regular World Series appearances. The team is getting old. The beat writers are incessantly negative towards everyone but Mo and Jeter. Ownership is erratic, and that might be a very kind term to call Hank and Hal. And they play in the AL East, home of the reigning AL Champs and the 2007 World Series Champs. It's rough out there.
9. The economy really IS in the crapper and really WILL affect ALL teams, Yanks included. Even with the new palace.
10. THE WINTER MEETINGS HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED YET! Folks, we all want the news faster than ever but give these things the chance to run their natural course.

Cashman is out West, talking to Boras and reportedly scheduled to chat with Sabathia. Take a deep breath.

Sabathia is a different case entirely, and the reason he is stalling, to those who know him, is just as the general manager suspected: his first choice is not New York. Sabathia is from Vallejo, Calif., near the Bay Area, and it is well known that his preference is to play for a team on the West Coast. But the money is elsewhere.

"It's not that he doesn't want to be a Yankee; that's not it at all," said a friend of Sabathia's, who was granted anonymity because Sabathia had not authorized him to speak on his behalf. "It's just the aspect of being out there, his family, that kind of stuff."

Like I have said regarding Peavy, don't count out the Yanks until the ink is drying on some other team's letterhead. Until then, kick back, relax. It's Friday, the weekend is in sight.

Peavy, Burnett and the Braves

So the Braves traded for Javy Vazquez, one-time Yankee, most recently of the White Sox. Briefly about Javy, from my perspective. I remember the day the Yanks traded for him. I was ecstatic. I called my dad, thrilled that we got this young power arm. He was entering his prime. He had a ton of K's for Montreal (remember them?). And now he was ours. Except he flopped. My bad.

Javy's now heading back to the NL and I think this is a good short term move for the Braves. I say short-term as I am not certain how good the kids going to the White Sox are going to be. Not to mention, the final tally going to CHI hasn't been solidified. Smarter scouts will judge (once K.Law gets to it, I'll update! SEE BELOW FOR UPDATE). TheMarkSmith, diehard Braves fan, has a good take on the players going back and forth.

The Braves were once the lead for Jake Peavy's services. Now, that's all but done, in my opinion. They aren't trading their best arms (Hanson). That leaves the Cubbies as the primary target, I think, for Peavy to stay in the NL. Maybe San Fran will surprise but I don't think their farm system has anything of note to entice SD. Of course, maybe you've heard me say this before, that leaves the Yanks still lurking in the weeds, waiting for the price to become low enough to jump on. I think Towers has painted himself into a very tight corner here. SD fans will not be happy once Peavy is sent for a less than stunning package of prospects. And it will happen. Maybe not to the Yanks, but someone's going to get Peavy on the relatively cheap.

Now the Braves are reportedly exploring a 5 year offer for Burnett.

Just as they were finalizing a trade for Javier Vazquez, the Braves were preparing a five-year offer for A.J. Burnett, according to sources. Burnett, considered the No.2 starter on the market, was expected to wait for Sabathia to make the first move. But with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all apparently hesitant to give Burnett a fifth year, the 31-year-old might jump at Atlanta's offer before Sabathia makes his decision.

If Atlanta trots out a rotation of Jurrjens, Burnett and Vazquez, that's probably good enough to make things even more interesting in the NL East.

I can imagine Cashman talking to Burnett's agent, whispering that if CC goes elsewhere, a 5 year offer for Burnett's services will be faxed by lunchtime. Heck, that might be happening anyways.

And not for nothing, but I think the Yanks should be looking closely at Sheets, if they aren't already. The good guys at RAB are big on Sheets. Can't disagree, except for the fact that Burnett's proven himself in the AL East while Sheets has only succeeded in the NL Central. Biiiiig difference. That said, I think he'd make a nice addition, says the greedy one.



UPDATE: From Keith Law, as promised, who's always reliable for good scout-eriffic analysis:

The package going back to the White Sox relies heavily on one prospect, breakout slugger Tyler Flowers, to make it a solid return. Brent Lillibridge is a nice utility player who can handle playing shortstop, second or center field but who is little more than a slap-hitter without good secondary skills, limiting his upside to a bench role. Third baseman Jon Gilmore is a moderate-tools prospect with very limited feel, below-average speed, and a limited power ceiling; he reminds me of Ryan Sweeney, another player from Iowa who was hyped as an amateur beyond what his actual tools merited.

The wild card for Chicago is left-hander Santos Rodriguez, a Gulf Coast League repeater with an outstanding arm. He's a long, lanky kid whose fastball sits 95-96 mph, and he shows some feel for a breaking ball. The delivery isn't pretty, and his command is still well below average, so he probably projects as a reliever. But his upside, even in the pen, is substantial, although his probability of reaching it right now given his inexperience and delivery is not that high.

Flowers, on the other hand, is going to produce offensively at the big-league level, possibly as soon as 2010. It's not quite the way you'd draw it up -- he bars his front arm slightly with his hands all the way back and takes an all-out swing -- but he has a very good eye and raw power, particularly to left and left-center. (His 17 home runs may not look impressive, but Myrtle Beach -- high Class A -- is a horrible place to hit.) He may not hit for a high average -- I'd like to see him prove he can catch up to better fastballs, as his bat speed isn't great on top of where he starts his hands -- but he'll post a high OBP and should be a 25-plus home run guy when he's established in the majors, perhaps more in a homer-friendly park like Chicago's. Flowers' drawback is behind the plate, where he's slow and blocky and has a fringe-average arm; he'll never be a defensive asset, but the White Sox have lived with A.J. Pierzynski back there for years and won a World Series with him, so they don't seem likely to overvalue defense at catcher. If Flowers reaches or comes near his ceiling, he alone is a good return on two years of Vazquez at a slightly below-market $11 million per year. But if Flowers can't catch or has too much trouble making contact at higher levels, the rest of the package isn't likely to make up for it.