Your 2009 YAE Nominees are....

Without further ado, Tom Verducci's 2009 Year After Effect nominees are (I tried to make this larger but that's the best I could do. Click on it to get a bigger view):


Says Verducci:

Last year I red-flagged seven pitchers: Jimenez, Gorzelanny, Ian Kennedy (Yankees), Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays), Chad Gaudin (Cubs), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) and Fausto Carmona (Indians). Except for Jimenez all of them broke down with injuries -- some of them serious, not all arm-related -- and combined to go 29-32. None won 10 games. Previous blowouts that were red-flagged included Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Anibal Sanchez, Adam Loewen and Scott Mathieson.

What does that mean for the 10 red flags for 2009? Don't panic, though Cole Hamels, whose elbow was barking in spring training, isn't completely out of the woods just yet. When I talked with Boston pitching coach John Farrell this spring about the Year After Effect on Lester, for instance, Farrell insisted that he has no worries whatsoever about the left-hander. Farrell said Lester is bigger, stronger and throwing harder than he did a year ago. "His progression has been everything you look for," Farrell said.

Like Pelfrey, Lester has age (he turned 25 in January) and size (6-2, 200) on his side. The red flags seem riskier for pitchers such as Hamels (slight build, mild injury history), Tim Lincecum (famously slight build) and Clayton Kershaw (age 21). Indeed, the entire Los Angeles Dodgers season might be riding on this list, with the club counting heavily on Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

Great stuff. I can't wait to see this develop.

Joba's 2009 workload, predicted

After a weekend of book sneak-peeks that made me equally disappointed and disgusted, I'm chomping at the bit for some real baseball "stuff". Anything really that discusses the on-field product for this coming season.

So when I noticed this article about Joba's predicted 2009 innings, I couldn't help but consider it a beacon that Spring Training is indeed less than three weeks away. I can't wait. This comes from MLBTradeRumors.com leader Tim Dierkes' article on RotoAuthority:

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175

  Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160

  Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155

  Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145

  Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142

  Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142

  Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6

  Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140

  Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6

  Keith Law, ESPN: 125

  Jon Heyman, SI: 109

  The average comes to 142.9 innings.

If Joba pitches 143 innings as a starter (which isn't mentioned above), that roughly translates to 24 six-inning starts, or 29 starts of 5 innings. From LAST year's Verducci Year-After-Effect article, Joba's limit was 149 innings. I think I'd be pleased with 150 quality innings from Joba and fill in the balance with kids from the farm (Aceves, etc.). If Joba makes it to the 100, 125 inning marks unscathed and feeling strong, I'd let him expand his target. He's got the body to do so.

I continue to maintain that Joba's got the most value for the Yanks as a starter, at least until Mo retires. Then, if Joba's still struggling to maintain a 200 inning workload at that point, he could be transitioned into Mo's replacement (unless there's some kid --Melancon?-- who identifies himself as the heir apparent).

2009 Y.A.E. candidates

I've been watching Tom Verducci's "year after effect" candidates for some time, anxiously looking ahead to see who's a candidate for a drop-off and to then examine which of the candidates suffered. Except usually I wait for Verducci to, you know, actually publish his list/analysis. This year, Beyond The Box Score did it for him, though I don't think it's an exhaustive list:

• Jon Lester (162 IP last year, 237 this year – 76 inning increase)
• Cole Hamels (190 IP last year, 262 this year – 72 inning increase)
• Chad Billingsley (147 IP last year, 212 this year – 65 inning increase)
• John Danks (139 IP last year, 195 this year -56 inning increase)
• Mike Pelfrey (146 IP last year, 200 this year – 54 inning increase)
• Tim Lincecum (177 IP last year, 226 this year – 49 inning increase)
• Jair Jurrjens (142 IP last year, 188 this year – 46 inning increase)

I'll wait for Verducci's work but this is a good preview!

Verducci on the end of The Stadium

I know I seem to be worshipping at the feet of Tom Verducci lately --and that's true-- but with good reason. Verducci catalogues his experiences as a young beat writer covering the Yanks thru the years and how that's changed:

George Streinbrenner would call, and listen to the manager tell stories for an hour or more before a game (no one sits in the manager's office any more), or pull up a chair or sit at a picnic table in the middle of the room to talk with players about restaurants, current events, movies and maybe even some baseball (writers are no longer allowed to sit at all in the clubhouse, even to conduct interviews with a seated Yankees player, even if the player invites you to take a seat, and so the disconnect between player and writer, and by proxy, to you, widens.)

Verducci also does a pretty good job laying out why the Yanks have been so terrible this year:

It will all be gone soon. The Yankees made sure it would go quietly, without the postseason sendoff it deserved, with a plan for 2008 that could not have turned out much worse. They banked on young pitching and a 900-run offense. But the young pitchers were dreadful, hurt or both. The Yankees got 68 starts from pitchers in their 20s, and the combined record of those pitchers in those games was 17-23.

The offense sputtered because 1) Jorge Posada was hurt, 2) Alex Rodriguez was at his worst in big spots (he has driven in seven runs all year in late-and-close situations, less than half of what Robinson Cano had in a bad year), possibly because he stopped using the whole field (his opposite field hits by year since joining the Yankees: 23, 25, 28, 15, 9, and 3) the Yankees had neither the homegrown talent or the front office smarts to find good complementary players to withstand injuries the way Boston and Tampa Bay did. Xavier Nady was a good addition, but otherwise the Yankees' support players were dreadful. They gave 18 percent of their total at-bats to non-players Jose Molina, Wilson Betemit, Ivan Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Chad Moeller, Morgan Ensberg, Shelly Duncan, Alberto Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Richie Sexson, Cody Ransom and Chris Stewart. Those players hit .221. The Yankees had a National League offense, if that. The 7-8-9 spots in the Yankee lineup, excluding pitchers, posted a .295 OBP. The Cubs, with pitchers taking most of the plate appearances, had better production from the nine hole (10 homers, 60 RBI) than did the Yankees (8, 38).

I'll have a bunch more to say and discuss before we get to the playoffs about my Stadium experiences. Care to be heard? If you care to share any of those Yankee Stadium experiences (good or bad, I won't discriminate) with me, email them to me and I'll try to post a bunch. Just make sure you take the time to at least quasi-edit them.

Also, I've also got two books to discuss that will get the nostalgia buffs all excited.

The senseless destruction

Yesterday, I sent Shysterball a link that I had every intention of diving into, but due to work committments, I was unable to address. I thought it worthy of mention and Craig did as well.

So, a day late, I point you to this wonderful rant by Gary Huckaby at Baseball Prospectus.

Tim Lincecum threw 138 pitches against San Diego last night.

Let me make this as clear as I possibly can.

That is utterly, completely, and colossally reckless, stupid, arrogant, and just plain lazy. Send in all the nasty emails calling me a geek who’s never played you like. Feel free to point out that Lincecum’s “just different”,”rubber armed”, or a “freak of nature”. It’s still mind-blowingly stupid, risky behavior.

I could have easily taken the entire rant as it's beautiful in its simplicity, its brevity, its edge.

Now, to dive a little deeper.

Baseball Prospectus has a neat little stat called PAP, or Pitcher's Abuse Points. If you want to dig into the math, feel free, but I'll just go with the data as presented. Care to hazard a guess who ranks el numero uno in PAP this year (thru 9/15/08)?

1. Tim Lincecum
2. CC Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay
4. Justin Verlander
5. Matt Cain

I went to #5 to include Cain. The two best assets of a asset-devoid team like the Giants are being abused, as defined by BP. Criminal for a team with no chance to do anything this year.

That's one way to look at the Lincecum abuse. The other is to layer in SI.com's Tom Verducci's Year After Effect. Verducci had his list in February of players most likely to suffer from the YAE in 2008 and I did the follow-up mid-season and the results were alarming. As a reminder of the general rule of thumb:

It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.

In 2007, Lincecum's rookie season, he pitched 146.1 innings. So far in 2008, at age 24, he's at 207.2. Simple math shows that he's blitzed the YAE barrier some time ago, like early August. He's +60 innings over his previous career high. Know who else was +60 IP last year over their career high? Ian Kennedy (+61) and Fausto Carmona (+56). Care to wonder how either has fared this season? Short answer: not good. Carmona's made just 20 starts (hello DL) and sits at 8-7 with a 5.16 ERA at age 24, more than two full runs higher than his stellar 3.06 ERA last year (where he placed 4th in CY voting). Kennedy is 0-4 in just 10 starts (injury, ineffectiveness) with an 8.17 ERA, just a smidge higher than his 1.89 ERA in just 3 starts last year.

Lincecum's been heralded as a freak. Verducci penned a really strong article on him not that long ago, talking about his unorthodox training methods and his overbearing incredibly attentive father. Verducci was gushing about his mechanics:

The quickness of Lincecum's small body is what scared off most scouts -- that and what has become something of a trademark, a tilting of his head toward first base in the early phase of his delivery. The scouts equated his body speed with violence. That assessment, however, is akin to watching the Blue Angels air-show team and not seeing the precision because of a fixation with the implicit danger. Lincecum generates outrageous rotational power -- the key element to velocity -- only because his legs, hips and torso work in such harmony.
......
Where Lincecum truly separates himself from most pitchers is the length of his stride. It is ridiculously long as it relates to his height. And just as his left foot, the landing foot, appears to be nearing the ground at the end of his stride, he lifts it as if stepping over a banana peel -- extending his stride even more. The normal stride length for a pitcher is 77% to 87% of his height. Lincecum's stride is 129%, or roughly 7 1/2 feet.

Yes, I am really concerned for Lincecum. I hope he can buck the trend and continue his ascention to the top pitcher in baseball.

Tim is a treasure, a reliable, workhorse major league starter, but also a testament to that unmeasurable art and mystery that always remain within the discipline of pitching. "My dad would notice itty-bitty things with my mechanics and make it second nature for me," Tim says. "Now I'm making adjustments quicker. It's nice to have him there, but I don't need him there to tell me what's going on. I can make those adjustments pitch to pitch now as opposed to game to game."

Good luck, Tim. I'm rootin' for ya, in spite of your management.

Joba and the YAE

Early into this blog's life (maybe that's the name of a yet-to-be-made movie), I discussed Tom Verducci's Year After Effect and it's relevance for the coming (2008) season. Around the all-star break, I took a look at those Verducci's YAE predicted would struggle and how they were faring.

The reason for the YAE preamble is the discussion that percolated yesterday about Joba returning as a reliever this year and that he will start 2009 also as a closer, before being transitioned to a starter. As a reminder, here's a bit from Verducci on the YAE:

It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.

Here's the way I track it: Find major league pitchers 25-and-under who broke the 30-inning rule.

In 2005 and '06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it's a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one.

Joba's pitched only 90.1 IP this year. Verducci noted in February that Joba's IP ceiling should max out around 149 IP. One hundred forty nine innings is roughly 5 IP per start, assuming 30 starts. Not exactly what you want from a guy who some think is a young Clemens.

So what do the Yanks do if they want to protect Joba? Do they simply ignore the YAE guidelines and just hope he works to condition his shoulder during the off-season and during the Spring Training? Do they just turn him loose? After all, he's 23 and a big strong guy. He's not built like a young Pedro Martinez or Mariano Rivera. And judging by the maturity he showed in Texas by calling out the trainer when something didn't feel right, he seems to have a grasp on the importance of staying healthy.

Or do they keep Joba on a 6 day rotation to keep his appearance count lower?

Or do they do what they did this year, having Joba begin as reliever and then re-transition to starter? Well, I don't think that worked out too well this year.

Personally, I toss him out there as a starter from Day One and do my best to manage the IP and appearance counts, giving him an extra day whenever possible.

Blogger buddy Shyster had a typical well-said about this subject:

What's more, if the whole idea of starting him in the bullpen and then moving him to the rotation didn't work this year, what's to say it would work next year? Chamberlain himself said that he would have preferred to have one role all season for the sake of consistency, so why jerk him around again like this in 2008?I'm not suggesting that the Yankees throw Joba to the wolves.

They should be careful. The should watch his pitch counts. They should rest him the moment he shows any signs of trouble. But for God's sake, let the boy pitch.

How to handle high-ceiling pitching prospects

Yesterday, I enjoyed a laugh at the expense of the zealous Sawx fans. Today, I give major props to the Sox front office for their smart handling of their high-ceiling pitching talent. Namely, Clay Buchholz. The same kid who tossed a no-hitter in his 2nd start ever, last season.

On May 15th this season, Buchholz was put on the DL for what was called a "cracked fingernail". He was sent to AAA once his DL stint expired.

Now, Buchholz was only mediocre in his brief 2008 before the DL, going just 2-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He finished an abbreviated 2007 with a 3-1 record but a sparkling 1.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Even more importantly, the Sox held this phenom OFF their post-season roster to manage his innings.

He pitched 125.1 IP in the minors last year, with an additional 22.2 IP in the majors. that's 148 IP. Going by the current rule of thumb, teams don't want to increase the workload over 30 innings over their previous high water marks. This year, he pitched 38.2 IP in the minors and 42.1 IP in the majors. With half the season yet to go, Buchholz is now fresh and ready to pitch another 100 IP with the big club and should be fresh for the post-season.

Rob Neyer noted this:

Buchholz is simply too good for the minors. In nine starts with Pawtucket, he's 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA, 43 strikeouts and 17 walks in 44 innings. As a major leaguer -- yes, including that no-hitter last season -- he's 5-4 with a 4.15 ERA, 65 strikeouts and 30 walks in 65 innings.

Tom Verducci had this to say about Clay BEFORE the year started:

Keep in mind what the Boston Red Sox did with Clay Buchholz last year. The kid, who turned 23 in August, threw a no-hitter in his second big league start. As the Red Sox scrambled down the stretch to fortify their bullpen (Eric Gagne, anybody?), Buchholz looked like a perfect option in front of Jonathan Papelbon. But the Red Sox resisted pushing Buchholz and shut him down in September and the postseason. His innings increase in 2007? They shut him down right at +29, just under the YAE [Year After Effect] threshold.

Also from Verducci, who looks awfully precient these days, are his top 7 "at risk" players, identified in February 2008 and their current results:

• Ian Kennedy, Yankees, 23 (+61 IP): 7.41 ERA, 8 starts, 0-3 record, injured/ineffective
• Fausto Carmona, Indians, 23 (+56.1): 3.10 ERA but a 1.59 WHIP, 10 starts, 23:38 K:BB ratio, injured
• Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies, 24 (+41 2/3): 4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 86:57 K:BB ratio, 4-8 record
• Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates, 25 (+40 1/3): 6.57 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 6-7 record
• Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays, 25 (+38 2/3) : 4.36 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6-7 record
• Chad Gaudin, Athletics, 24 (+36): 3.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, removed from rotation after May 3rd start
• Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, 21 (+33): 1.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, was scintillating until torn ACL (had knee surgery in off-season)

So I can kid and have fun with my Sox buddies up North, but at the same time, we must respect and admire their management's ability to keep the big picture in perspective. Something that I don't think Hank does so well.


UPDATE: McGowan on the DL with a tear in his rotator cuff. 7/10/08

Verducci's Year After Effect

SI.com's Tom Verducci has been espousing his "Year After Effect", or YAE, about the handling of young pitchers as they progress to the Majors. His article yesterday was his latest on this theory, which I think is certainly worth mentioning. He highlighted seven pitchers who, if not used correctly, could be in line for a breakdown or steep decline in performance. Clearly, the old-school theory of "pitch, pitch, pitch" is well in our rearview mirror.

It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it.

Here's the way I track it: Find major league pitchers 25-and-under who broke the 30-inning rule.

In 2005 and '06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it's a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one.

Pretty interesting and scary stuff. I'd love to see an analysis of this going back 30 or 50 years, to see if it's more than a recent trend. Don't know if I can get that sort of info, but I will try.

Verducci takes the three Yankee kids as a test case and lays out the max IP ceilings for each, based upon his parameters above:

• Kennedy: 195 innings
• Hughes: 176 innings
• Chamberlain: 149 innings

Verducci's Top Seven "at risk" for YAE are below, listed in order, Player Name, Age, Increase in IP over 2006 IP:

• Ian Kennedy, Yankees, 23 (+61 IP) "One caveat: Kennedy's jump is not as alarming as first blush indicates. The Yankees did give him an extra 30 1/3 "unofficial" innings of winter ball in 2006 (see Carmona below); not your high-stress big league innings, but still good incremental training. If you count that work, his jump of 30 2/3 innings barely pushes him into the danger zone."
• Fausto Carmona, Indians, 23 (+56.1)
• Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies, 24 (+41 2/3)
• Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates, 25 (+40 1/3) "While Gorzelanny was passing his career high in innings, the Pirates let him throw 105, 118, 107, 107 and 117 pitches in meaningless consecutive September starts. Why?"
• Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays, 25 (+38 2/3)
• Chad Gaudin, Athletics, 24 (+36)
• Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, 21 (+33)

Lastly, from Verducci:

Keep in mind what the Boston Red Sox did with Clay Buchholz last year. The kid, who turned 23 in August, threw a no-hitter in his second big league start. As the Red Sox scrambled down the stretch to fortify their bullpen (Eric Gagne, anybody?), Buchholz looked like a perfect option in front of Jonathan Papelbon. But the Red Sox resisted pushing Buchholz and shut him down in September and the postseason. His innings increase in 2007? They shut him down right at +29, just under the YAE threshold. Now he's healthy and on track to throw no more than 78
innings this year.