Is Hughes the new Joba? Huh?

You can count me as one of those who loves what he sees with Hughes' emergence in the Yanks bullpen. He can handle two big innings, throws heat, gets the ball to either Bruney or Mo.

Sure, he's a starter toiling in the bullpen right now, but given the depth of their rotation (especially with Wang making some improvements), I think Hughes should remain here at least until Joba hits his inning limits.

Not by coincidence, Hughes' velocity has seen a jump since he moved to the bullpen, even though this wasn't the original plan. Of course Hughes would prefer to stick in the big leagues -- the pay, travel, everything is better; no one grows up dreaming of pitching in Triple-A -- but even though relieving isn't his first choice, Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman have been impressed by his open mind.

Let's not forget that Hughes isn't far removed from being touted as a top prospect, so we shouldn't be completely stunned that he's finding success. But, looking to cut off another Joba Chamberlain debate at the pass, the Yankees are making sure people know Hughes really is a starter masquerading as a reliever.

Joba should be a starter. For good. I also understand that the Yanks will try to cap his innings around the 150-175 mark. In other words, Joba's pitched almost half his season already, having thrown 75.2 innings thus far this year, making 14 starts. So when Joba gets closer to 150 innings, I could see Hughes and Joba possibly swapping roles, allowing them to remain effective and fresh.

Of course, there are the playoffs, should they make it. I'd like to believe that Joba, assuming all else is the same, is the #3 starter in any playoff rotation. Does it make sense to remove Joba from the starting rotation in September, only to toss him back in it in October? Or just cap his innings on a game-by-game basis, stopping at 6 innings?

How do you handle these two young guns? I don't have the answers. But I keep looking for them.
Do you let them throw as long as they are healthy and effective? Or do you continue to baby the hell out of them, ever fearing the worst? Do you have to develop a way to separate "easy innings" from "high stress" innings. Are "easy innings" innings in which the pitcher gets out in under 12 pitches? Are "high stress" innings those that require greater than 18 pitches? After all, all innings are not created equal.

I've listened to/read Goose Gossage, Jim Kaat and Tommy John recently, discussing how they believe pitchers need to train to go longer in games. The old "you don't train to run a marathon by running 2 miles" analogy. I had been a big believer in the protecting of arms at all costs, but I have come around to more of the old school approach. Over-protecting an arm is fine if you think that arm belongs to a motion that is flawed. But if the pitcher has good fundamentals and approach, I think the pitchers need to learn to extend, reach for that extra inning. Stop looking towards the dugout once he gets close to 100 pitches.

Small guys like Lincecum and Oswalt each tossed 2 hit complete games last night. Lincecum has gone the distance in 3 of his last 4 games. He's conditioned himself to do that. Halladay, too. Lincecum's highest pitch count in any one inning was "just" 13 pitches. He finished the game in under 100 pitches. No walks, 8 K's. Efficiency.

I'd like to see Joba and Hughes eventually get to that.

Joba's Superfly...or a human lawnmower

This was some play, a flat out flop dive to face-plant himself catch a bunt, then he recovered to nail the runner at 2nd for a great double play.

He wouldn't have made this if he was the 8th inning guy, you know. Just sayin'.

In case you couldn't tell, that was the Geico Play Of The Game. They sponsor that sorta thing.

Pitching to contact

I've enjoyed listening to Jim Kaat for many years as he used to be a member of the Yanks broadcast team. I appreciate his views on pitching, old school pitching. My father pointed out his latest blog posting (yes, Kaat has a blog, too) as it speaks to what Kaat views as a lost art: Pitching to the Scoreboard (his emphasis included).

Here's the catch (or the pitch!), someone needs to teach pitchers to pitch to the scoreboard and to the count. Early in the game, pitchers tend to be afraid of the bat and hitters making contact. Why? It has always been my strategy to gamble early in the play and early in the game. I wanted to try to knock out every hitter in three or less pitches and/or try to make him get hits on all of them. The great Sandy Koufax, a good friend of mine, said he was the most successful pitcher because he tried to get hitters to hit the ball, not miss the ball. Let's face it; the best hitters get three hits out of 10 at-bats. I remember times when I used to tell the catcher to call just fastball after fastball, and get as many out as possible in the early innings. Then when it came down to the last few innings, I could use my other weapons more effectively. Curveballs, sliders, and everything else I had in my arsenal. That was when it really counted.

Pitchers today should be less cautious early on, and try to throw as many strikes as possible to avoid long counts and keep hitters from seeing and deciphering too many pitches. When it's tied in the seventh, and the pitcher has not been more economical and the pitch count stands at 108, managers are forced to take him out. However, if it's the sixth inning and he's only thrown 75, he's got enough to finish the game.
[...]
Pitching is tougher these days. With smaller stadiums, a smaller strike zone, a tighter wound ball, and lighter, laminated, harder bats, there is little opportunity to keep hitters from diving into the ball without a fight, a warning or an ejection. And hitters are bigger and stronger than ever. Watch some of the World Series highlights on the MLB Network and check out the size difference in the players then and now. But, even with that said, sooner or later you have to throw it over the plate.

Now THAT is a good read.

Kaat began with a fun personal anecdote about this subject:

When I asked Robin [Roberts], "How do you pitch to Willie Mays?" he would answer, "Tell me the inning, the score and the count."

Kaat ends his spiel in a way not often read by players of the previous generation, noting that the players today are better than when he played, but they haven't been trained to pitch properly:

Pitchers are bigger, stronger and, quite frankly, have better technique than we had in days past. They just need to be taught to pay attention to the scoreboard and pitch to the inning, the score, and the count.

Huff mocks Joba

OK, I'll admit it: There's a good deal of "punk" in Joba. He went after Youkilis waaay too high, too often. He drilled Bay after Bay hit one out, in the midst of a roll where he was striking out everyone. He loves the fist pump* and the emotion.

I think it's healthy for players to be excited, within reason. I don't want Joba doing things that shows up the other team or puts anyone (on the Yanks or the opposition) in any physical danger. The Yanks have been called "corporate" for many years now and I think that attitude has devolved into something that's no longer a positive. It's flat out boring and passionless. Joba, Swisher and even Damon bring something new that I think is very important.

All that being said, when Aubrey Huff mocks Joba after taking him deep, I think it's pretty funny. I'm not so uptight to say that Huff shouldn't do that or whatever.

The Orioles had privately questioned Chamberlain's celebratory antics, and word he had pumped his fist after a series of strikeouts while losing to the Red Sox Tuesday caught the attention of Baltimore players. So it wasn't much of a surprise when Huff did the same as he rounded first base - taking a look in Chamberlain's direction at the same time - then doing it again as he crossed the plate.

"You know he does that stuff all the time as a pitcher, so I was just having a little fun with him out there," Huff said. "Part of the game, you get excited in a situation like that, I wasn't showing anybody up."

I remember a year or two (or three) ago when someone in the NFL (Shawn Merriman?) got upset because someone else (Ray Lewis?) mocked his sack dance*. I thought that was about the lamest "battle" that I have ever heard. Anyone getting upset with Huff about mocking Joba needs to regain their sense of humor.

Can't we just laugh this off a bit more rather than making it a whole event worth articles discussing?


By the way, check out FackYouk's screengrabs of Papelbon's latest celebration, making Joba's fist pump look like a simple tip of the cap.


* Please excuse the terms "fist pump" and "sack dance" in the same posting. No innuendos were hurt in the creation of this posting.

Post script: a thanks to Tadthebad for continuing to remind me that Joba's a punk.

Joba, the starter

I'll leave the plunking of Bay aside for a moment. Once he settled down after a rough first inning, Joba was flat out incredible. He finished with 12 K's, including 8 STRAIGHT at one point.

So can we please, finally, put the "Joba-should-be-an-8th-inning pitcher" crap to rest?

Pete Abe has some good live-blogging quotes:

• UPDATE, 8:20 p.m.: I’m sure the put-Joba-in-the-bullpen chuckleheads enjoyed the first inning. Meanwhile, he has struck out seven of the last 11 batters he has faced. This just in: He’s not going to be Bob Gibson every inning. He’s 23 and in his first full year as a big league starter. He’s figuring it all out. Give him a chance. He could be great. Not good, great.
  


• UPDATE, 8:40 p.m.: Witness and behold Joba Chamberlain, who is filthy as filthy can be these last four innings. He has fanned 10 of the last 16 batters he has faced, eight of them looking.
  
  Word around the league was that Chamberlain could not throw his slider for a strike and to lay off it. That is no longer the case.
  
  Anybody who wants to waste this kid in the bullpen is clinically stupid.



• UPDATE, 9:08 p.m: The last time a Yankee fanned 12 was Mike Mussina on May 7, 2007 at Seattle. The last Yankee to K 12 in the Boogie Down was Moose on Sept. 24, 2002.
  
  But by all means, let’s use him in the eighth inning. That way he can strike out three guys.

The drilling of Bay was certainly curious. Payback for "alleged" sign-stealing yesterday? Payback for Bay's monster HR in the first? Or just pitching inside? If you can say definitively, you are a fan of one team or the other, since there's no way to know for sure. He didn't stand on the hill and glare at Bay. He didn't walk towards Bay defiantly like Beckett did to Abreu earlier this year. He hit Bay in the ribs and spun off the mound.

I will note this, too, from my limited observations of the team this year: they do seem to be pitching on the inside half more than I have seen in prior years. An organizational committment to recapture that part of the zone, perhaps?

Mother's always right?

Hope Joba has other, stronger, safer members of his support system:

The mother of New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain is jailed in Nebraska and facing a felony charge after being arrested on suspicion of selling methamphetamine to an undercover police officer in February.

Good luck to the family. They sure need it.

Phil Hughes, lookin' sharp

I don't do daily game recaps; you can get them everywhere else. Not to mention, I don't get to watch every inning of every game.

But, I did watch much of the game last night and wow did Phil Hughes look sharp. I'll try to temper my enthusiasm as I'd be beyond excited to see one of our own emerge again. It was a long time between Pettitte to Wang and Joba and the expectations have hounded Hughes for years. It's hard to remember that Hughes is just 23 years old.

Phil Hughes wasn’t just good tonight, he was great. Six scoreless innings, two hits, two walks, six strikeouts. He threw 59 of 99 pitches for strikes and never cracked in a scoreless duel with Edwin Jackson.

If you were watching closely, Hughes had to fight to get command of his curveball. It was all over the place in the first few innings, even when he threw it for strikes. When he struck out Placido Polanco in the first inning, it was on a curve that wasn’t where he wanted it.

I saw that curve and Polanco's knees buckled. I thought that pitch was perfect, but what do I know?

Here's to hoping Hughes develops into everything we want him to be. Of course, that will only mean that the cries to "move Joba back to the pen" will get louder.

Awww, Joba insulted NY'ers? He's right

I can't imagine why fellow New Yorkers would be upset about this? Joba's dead right. Is it because we don't like hearing the truth? The truth is, most NYC'ers are rude as hell. There, I said it.

"The biggest thing that I've noticed driving here and there is if you let somebody in, they open the window and say 'thank you,' " Chamberlain said about getting behind the wheel in Nebraska.

"In New York, they might hit you. Yeah, it's a joke."

A few weeks ago, I changed lanes on the Hutch due to a merge. Rather than letting me in, when there was more than ample room, the guy behind me gunned his engine, ran up on the shoulder (there really isn't one on the Hutch, if you aren't aware) and pushed me back into the middle lane before I could move back myself, causing damage to both cars. Ricky Bobby had nothing on this #$%^&(#. Thankfully, no one was hurt. This was the same guy that 10 minutes earlier I witnessed running the righthand lane shoulder to merge onto the Hutch. Wish I had an on-board video camera like the cops because this guy should have his license revoked. Want his license plate #?

It's not the drivers, it's the rude attitudes that foster the "my time/space/stuff is more important than yours" mentality. Can't stand it.

Going on the cheap, bullpen style

I guess I find it funny. Some have been deriding the Yanks' bullpen because it consists largely of youngsters, but aren't those the same youngsters that others say the Yanks don't have enough of (yeah, they need young position players, I get it...)? That Joba should be a set up guy because the team lacks a proven one....

So courtesy of Pete Abe ("LoHud of the Rings"), here are the salary figures (bonuses included) for the middle relief corps:

• Damaso Marte: $3.75 million
• Brian Bruney: $1.25 million
• Jose Veras: $432,975
• Edwar Ramirez: $422,500
• Phil Coke: $403,300
• Jonathan Albaladejo: $403,075
• TOTAL: $6,661,850

The Joba Impact

Another FOTB, author Bryan Jones, was kind enough to forward me this article written by Dave Fleming from BillJamesOnline (link forthcoming, subscription required). The article postulates that the 2009 year for Joba will be significant in the determining the Yanks long term organizational strategy. It also dovetails nicely with the "debate" discussed yesterday.

In 2008 Chamberlain was again in the bullpen. It makes sense: why would anyone give the ball to a twenty-two year old who averages 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, when you have the likes of Sydney Ponson and Darrell Rasner begging for starts.
[...]
Joba Chamberlain is a barometer for where the Yankees are going. If the Yankees give him a chance; if they endure the inevitable bumps on the road, then they will be a very good team over the next decade. If the Yankees are really smart, they will extend the same chance to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, and even Alfredo Aceves.

But if they submit again to the ‘win-now’ pressures of the last thirty years, they will deny Chamberlain the chance to be great, they will handicap their franchise against teams like Tampa Bay and Boston and Toronto, and they will rob the rest of us the pleasure of watching a great career unfold.

I think this is pretty fair and reasonable.

Wallace: RP more important than SP

Wallace Matthews, a favorite to be sure, has a general theory: A great 2 inning RP is more valuable than a 6 inning SP. He uses this theory to support claims that Joba Chamberlain would be better off (and more valuable) at a set up man to Mo than as a starter.

The Yankees, who have an abundance of guys to start their games this year, think it's a good idea to take the greatest two-inning pitcher since Mariano Rivera, circa 1996, and turn him into just another starter.

I think they're nuts.

The reality with starters is that they are six-inning pitchers on most days, seven- and eight-inning pitchers on their best days.

In four out of every five starts, they are going to need a guy to come charging out of that bullpen in the seventh inning to hold the game until the closer gets there.

With all due respect, I think Matthews is nuts. There are so many ways to dissect this, but I will stick to my basic mantra: Follow the money.

Top starters signed this off-season:

1. CC Sabathia, NYY, 7 years, $161 million
2. AJ Burnett, NYY, 5 years, $82.5 million
3. Derek Lowe, ATL, 4 years, $60 million

Top closers/set-up men signed this off-season:

1. Frankie Rodriguez, NYM, 3 years, $36 million
2. Kyle Farnsworth, KCR, 2 years, $9.25 million (sorry, I had to include him)

Follow the money. If closers (or, gasp) set-up men were so valuable, they'd be signing the big contracts. But it's the horses in the rotation that pull the sled and are paid accordingly. The Yanks have developed/found a solid bullpen this year that could do the job at least as well as Joba could. Maybe not better, but close to on par. The total cost of the entire bullpen, minus Mo, is less than they are paying for Andy Pettitte, by far. And by all accounts, they are a pretty darned good bunch. Their 2008 bullpen was among the best in the game and they return largely intact. K-Rod set the all time record for saves in a season last year and had to settle for a contract half the value as he imagined. Blame it on the economy if you wish, but the truth is, closers are not as rare as true ace pitchers. Perhaps Joba won't evolve into an ace, but if he can be a solid #2 or #3 for a decade, to me, that's worth more.

At some point in the not-to-distant future, Mo will retire. Could Joba elevate himself to closer at point? Absolutely. But what if, in the course of the next 2-3 years, Joba really finds himself as a starter? What if he becomes the pitcher many think he can become? Would Matthews then think moving him to a closer role would be better solution for the Yanks? What if farmhands like Mark Melancon continue to develop and become the logical heir apparent to Mo? If Joba does mature well, I think he has significantly more value as a starter than a closer.

I say that's like hiring Picasso to paint your garage door or asking Mozart to come up with a toothpaste jingle. Many can start; few can finish. Joba can finish. He was a great setup man, and someday he'll be a great closer. Those commodities are a lot scarcer on the market than starting pitchers.

No!!!! Many can set-up, few can be an ace starter. Mo Rivera and guys like Trevor Hoffman are the exceptions, not the rule. Closers generally last a handful of years then flame out. Rare are the guys who can do it as well and for as long as Mo and Hoffman.

All of this said, my stance will change if Joba proves that he can't handle the rigors of making 33 starts a year. If he's more fragile than the Yanks envision, I will change my tune. But if he is simply in the learning process of what it takes to be a consistent and reliable starter, we have to at least find out, don't we? Simply taking a small sample from the yo-yo 2008 season and applying it to the balance of Joba's career life expectancy is foolish.

Last year, freed from the stifling caution of The Joba Rules, he broke down about 90 innings into his first year as a starter. Even before the injury, he went beyond six innings only once in 12 starts. This spring, his velocity has fluctuated from the mid-90s down to the high 80s.

Joba has the tools and the mindset to start and to close. His greatest value to the team and to himself is as a starter. I think the Yanks are correct in giving Joba the chance to find himself as a starter before panicking and dumping him into the 'pen.


UPDATE: Several others had good takes on this today, either linked directly or not:

• Neyer's take (which reads awfully close to mine!)
• ShysterBall (linked here, thank you)
• The Common Man (also linked to here)
• New Stadium Insider (linked here)
• MLB Notebook (linked here)
• Rivera's Cutter (not linked here, but similar theme)

NYY: 5 things to look forward to

Thanks to Josh at Jorge Says No!, here are his top 5 things the Yanks can look forward to in 2009. You'll have to click thru to read his rationale.

1. Joba in the rotation...finally
2. What next for A-Rod?
3. Brett Gardner
4. A healthy Jorge Posada
5. CC

I really have no idea what to expect with ARod this season. Not a freakin' clue. He could struggle with his hip and his incredible distractions all year. He could come back focused on the game and being a better teammate and have a typically huge year. Neither would surprise me. Silence, on the other hand, would.

And I am totally excited to see CC take the hill. And if Gardner can put a hammerlock on the CF gig, can he at least approximate what Ellsbury is in Boston? 10 HR power, 40 SB, solid BA/OBP, solid D. I think it's possible.

Projecting the Yanks' 2009 staff

SNY compiled three major sources who project all sorts of stuff like this and here are the Yanks' 2009 projections, including this preamble (you'll have to hit the link for the details):

Again, don't let the stats blind or bias you. Everyone who is serious about projecting players knows it's an inexact science. In their best years, the various systems struggle to project even 1/5 of the players to within 10-percent accuracy.
[...]
CC Sabathia: Shandler: 218 innings, 201 strikeouts, 3.02 ERA; James: 240/205/3.48; ZiPS: 223/204/3.07.

Andy Pettitte: Shandler: 194/149/3.99; James: 192/147/3.90; ZiPS: 195/138/4.43.

A.J. Burnett: Shandler: 183/186/3.89; James 224/218/3.62; ZiPS 179/170/3.97.

Chien-Ming Wang: Shandler: 189/101/3.92; James 200/92/3.70; ZiPS 149.3/71/3.92.

Joba Chamberlain: Shandler 199/236/3.12; James: Not projected; ZiPS: 131.3/129/3.77.

Ian Kennedy: Shandler: 123/103/4.11; James: Not projected; ZiPS: 128/94/4.57.

Phil Hughes: Shandler: 149/127/4.59;, James: 125/122/3.35; ZiPS: 59/42/4.27.

Mariano Rivera: Shandler: 73/67/2.73; James: 70/66/2.07; ZiPS: 67/65/2.28.

Damaso Marte: Shandler: 58/64/3.72; James 56/60/3.40; ZiPS: 53/62/3.58.

Edwar Ramirez: Shandler: 58/68/3.57; James: 53/74/3.38; ZiPS: 56/66/3.86.

(h/t to WasWatching.com)

All for one....

The Yanks' persona the last half dozen (or dozen, whatever) years has been very sterile, corporate. Or, in other less-flattering terms: BORING and FRACTURED. What this will mean when the games count I am not sure, but I am sure happy to hear that it's changing, even a little:

On a suggestion from A.J. Burnett before a Feb. 28 game at Steinbrenner Field, the members of the Yankees' projected rotation went to watch Joba Chamberlain warm up. And a habit was born.
[...]
The fraternity in the Yankees clubhouse has been noticeably stronger this spring, and no place has that been more overt than among this re-shuffled rotation. The five starters have committed to each other in a variety of ways, including going to watch each other's pre-game warm-ups.
[...]
It is difficult to measure what fraternity might mean within a rotation. The act of pitching, after all, is mostly a solitary act. But it is clear that big-time weight is on this rotation for a variety of reasons, notably that a quarter of a billion dollars was invested in Sabathia and Burnett to make starting pitching the backbone of the team and without Alex Rodriguez for a while this club is going to need its rotation operating at peak efficiency. So having an internal support system, especially in New York, should be valuable.
[...]
Sabathia arrived with the reputation as one of the game's best teammates and has only burnished that image.
[...]
But the surprise of the group has been Burnett. His reputation was as prickly and different. However, he has belied that, so far.

I continue to believe that Burnett will thrive since he can simply draft behind CC's wake. And that will ripple down the rotation. Of course, if Sabathia gets off to a dismal start or Burnett gets hurt.... all bets off. But if they succeed and the Yanks have a solid April, we can look forward to the "this team is better off without ARod" slop-slinging.

Surviving ARod's absence

The silly "Yanks are better off without ARod" type articles are nearly as bad as the "Yanks can't live without ARod" rebuttals. Honestly, I have tried hard to read neither. The Yanks have a huge hole to fill at 3b and in the middle of the lineup. No matter how much you hate, revile, mock, despise (insert your choice here) ARod as a person, you can't discount his incredible abilities on the field.

So while I think he will be missed, I also think the Yanks can do well thanks to the fact that they added two superb pitchers this off-season to front what was merely a good rotation and nothing more. CC and Burnett, in front of Wang, Pettitte and Joba should anchor the rotation and help cure the ills that a lineup sans ARod suffers from.

From Boston beat writer Nick Cafardo:

For the last five years, A-Rod has averaged 42 homers and 123 RBIs, but the Yankees have not won a championship. You can't blame that all on him.

What could help the Yankees ride this out is their superior starting pitching. Don't forget, it was pitching and defense that won them championships.

"It hurts not having A-Rod, but I'm not sure it kills them," said another AL GM. "When they throw those five starters at you, that's awfully tough. They still have good hitters who can score runs, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet they're trying to get another hitter in that lineup."

Yep, that's spot on.

Pictures from Spring Training

Some of my pictures from Spring Training last week. Enjoy.

Sheets an option?

If the "cost" to the Yanks is merely a 4th round pick plus salary/bonus to land Ben Sheets, I continue to say that's a worthwhile risk.

While the Rangers have met twice with Sheets, the Yankees are one of a few teams considering the talented righthander. Sheets has provided a second medical report for teams to review but it isn't known how it differs from the first. His market has been slow despite a career full of accomplishments.

If Sheets would take a "prove it" contract (say $5m guaranteed this year plus incentives with a $12m team option for 2010), that'd be a great thing for the Yanks. It's not dissimilar to the Smoltz/Penny contracts the Sox just signed. Or, as I have referred to them, "Lieber contracts". The Yanks are already eyeballs deep in risk; Sheets' risk would add little more at little financial burden.

If you told me that Sheets and Joba would combine for 300 good innings behind CC, Burnett and Wang, with Hughes and others filling in the rest, I'd be pretty excited.

I remain disappointed in Pettitte. I'm not riding him out of town on a rail, but I am disappointed in his stance. The only thing teams "owe" its players is the number on the contract. The other stuff (respect, etc.) must be earned from both sides. Pettitte was hugged by the organization last year, right after the Mitchell Report was released. And despite his claims, he did have a mediocre year and a lousy 2nd half. For him to say last year that he was only interested in signing with the Yanks and it wouldn't be about the money and to now have him holding out due to money is just disappointing.

Joba's 2009 workload, predicted

After a weekend of book sneak-peeks that made me equally disappointed and disgusted, I'm chomping at the bit for some real baseball "stuff". Anything really that discusses the on-field product for this coming season.

So when I noticed this article about Joba's predicted 2009 innings, I couldn't help but consider it a beacon that Spring Training is indeed less than three weeks away. I can't wait. This comes from MLBTradeRumors.com leader Tim Dierkes' article on RotoAuthority:

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175

  Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160

  Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155

  Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145

  Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142

  Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142

  Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6

  Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140

  Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6

  Keith Law, ESPN: 125

  Jon Heyman, SI: 109

  The average comes to 142.9 innings.

If Joba pitches 143 innings as a starter (which isn't mentioned above), that roughly translates to 24 six-inning starts, or 29 starts of 5 innings. From LAST year's Verducci Year-After-Effect article, Joba's limit was 149 innings. I think I'd be pleased with 150 quality innings from Joba and fill in the balance with kids from the farm (Aceves, etc.). If Joba makes it to the 100, 125 inning marks unscathed and feeling strong, I'd let him expand his target. He's got the body to do so.

I continue to maintain that Joba's got the most value for the Yanks as a starter, at least until Mo retires. Then, if Joba's still struggling to maintain a 200 inning workload at that point, he could be transitioned into Mo's replacement (unless there's some kid --Melancon?-- who identifies himself as the heir apparent).

Joba to start

Yes, there are risks about his shoulder, but with proper physical therapy and training this off-season, there is no reason why Joba can't be a starter from 2009 forward. In fact, this is the only logical solution.

"The plan as of right now is Chamberlain is going to be a starter," the Yankees co-chairman said Thursday after five hours of organizational meetings at the team's spring training complex. "Everybody's pretty much in agreement with that."

Including all the piss-ants?

The cupboard's bare

Taking a quick break during lunch and I came across this, by Buster Olney, who had a great seat watching the change in the Yanks philosophy this decade:

From the fall of 2001 through 2005, the Yankees sacrificed nine high draft picks to sign free agents Jason Giambi, Steve Karsay, Rondell White, Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth and Johnny Damon. In addition, the Yankees' consistent high finishes in the standings -- propped up by the free-agent signings -- naturally hurt their draft position.

"The bottom line is that there is a lot of value, in the big picture, to have a down year now and then," said a rival GM, "because that's the only way you're going to have a real shot at the elite talent in the draft. You can't say that out loud to your fans, but that's the truth. You might have someone fall through the cracks to you every once in awhile, but the best draft talent is, generally speaking, going to be at the top of the draft."

The Yankees have changed their draft philosophy in recent seasons, selecting the best player on their board, rather than trying to address a specific position, like catcher. They still lack depth among their position-player prospects, but they have done well in landing highly regarded pitching talent, like Joba Chamberlain.

I wonder if the next CBA will address the losing of draft picks for signing others free agents.


(Would love to do more today folks, but I gotta jump back into this rip-roaring session.)