IIATMS Fantasy League Update, pre-Week 1

I've been meaning to get to this, but between my fading memory, an amped up workload and assorted other stuff, it escaped me. I want to provided at least weekly updates on the inaugural IIATMS fantasy league.

1. There was a bit of a dust-up early as one owner waived Joba within hours after drafting him in the 8th round. I publicly (and privately) asked the owner to explain why he'd do something like that, particularly given the audience. I was also concerned that it might have been done by mistake and I wanted to correct it, if it was an error, prior to the waivers executing. Others were also wondering about the dumping of such a high profile player so quickly after the draft.
   
   Let's just say that some found my asking "offensive", as if I were the roster police and wondering if I was going to do this for every add/drop. That wasn't my intention but some took it that way. Long story short, the dust-up has been settled with Zach (MLB Notebook) adding Joba via waivers. A nice "find" if you ask me. With the kinks worked out, we're all sailing along now.
   
2. We also had our first trade:
   + The Greater Fool Theory (my team) sends: Adam Dunn, Chien-Ming Wang, Elvis Andrus
   + The MLB Notebook (Zach's team) sends: Tim Lincecum, Shane Victorino
   
   This featured a team with many power bats sending one to a team with power arms. I loaded up on big bats early and often in the draft, leading to my first pitcher (Dice K) being selected in the 7th round.
   
   
3. Other than that, it's been pretty quiet since #1 was settled.

Going on the cheap, bullpen style

I guess I find it funny. Some have been deriding the Yanks' bullpen because it consists largely of youngsters, but aren't those the same youngsters that others say the Yanks don't have enough of (yeah, they need young position players, I get it...)? That Joba should be a set up guy because the team lacks a proven one....

So courtesy of Pete Abe ("LoHud of the Rings"), here are the salary figures (bonuses included) for the middle relief corps:

• Damaso Marte: $3.75 million
• Brian Bruney: $1.25 million
• Jose Veras: $432,975
• Edwar Ramirez: $422,500
• Phil Coke: $403,300
• Jonathan Albaladejo: $403,075
• TOTAL: $6,661,850

25 things facing the Yanks, Canadian style

A sobering and otherwise depressing view of the Yanks 2009 season done in a "25 things" style can be found here, at Neate Sager's place. Some of the best ones:

2. One Buffalo columnist imagined a major-league roster drawn entirely from the best players age 25 and under. One big takeaway: He didn't have a single Yankee.

3. That knee-jerk impulse about how Allen James Burnett only manages to throw 200 innings when he's in his contract year (and the one time he wasn't, he needed elbow surgery) was probably right.

7. They will be the best third-place team money can buy.

8. Right-hander Phil Hughes, or as he's alternately known, The Reason Johan Santana's A Met, is still only 22 years old.

25. Jaded Jays-fan backbiting aside, Yankees fans is good people, especially Jason at It Is About The Money, Stupid. You have to be courteous and friendly. Please remember that there but for the grace of God goes Roy Halladay's future team.

Yep, I am a straight up sucker for anyone saying nice things about me.

And I think Neate is spot on with some of these, #25 aside.

Circling the bases

Fellow Shysterfriends: Circling the bases is live. Set your bookmarks

Tales from the New Stadium

Wish I was there this weekend to help give the new Stadium a test drive, but luckily we have some FOTB's who were good enough report in.

One is from Ross from New Stadium Insider, who delivers a wonderful (and brutally honest) review of his thoughts from the game. Most disappointing for me:

Views from the entire Grandstand are terrible. Moving things back by 30 feet has made all of the difference in the world. The Grandstand evokes memories of Shea Stadium - don't count on a baseball, fair or foul, ever reaching there. This may be a positive for some who are scared of getting hit with a foul ball, but it also really removes you from the action. The seats in the outfield sections are far, far away. I would trade those $20 tickets for $12 tickets in the bleachers STRAIGHT UP - no questions asked. Any takers?

I noted this way back when as the profile of the stands has become more bowl-like (like Shea used to be) rather than closer to the field and more vertical. Said me:

I love how the upper deck in the current stadium is so close to the field. It's not a big bowl like Shea or some other stadiums. The fans are closer and louder. Now, as it seems, the new stadium will be a bigger bowl with the fans further away. Maybe the seats will be nicer or have a better "view", but I'd easily give up the perfect sightlines to be closer to the field, louder for the opposition.

Next, a first-hand report from reader Alex, who's views about the Grandstand differ from Ross' and my fears:

In case you didn't get a chance to make it to either of the exhibition games this weekend.

The new stadium is VERY nice. We sat in the Grandstand level on the infield. Even though we were in the highest deck it didn't feel like we were that far away from the action. I always felt like the old stadium was way too steep when you got to the higher levels, but this one just felt more sloped and not as dangerous.

As for the food, we just ate some Johnny Rockets burger and fries since that and a "snack" stand were closest to our seats (I'm not a big fan of carrying food all over the place). There was a stand near us that had all kinds of nicer beer though (Heineken, Blue Moon, Bass, etc.). On the field level is where all the good eats are. There is an area I would call a food court where the Sushi, BBQ, and noodle bowl places along with others are. They have small tables set up for you to eat at as well. My real gripe with (both) the stadiums food was the lack of packets (or even cups) of condiments. You have to glop a pile of ketchup or mustard into your food container, very messy.

The entrance at gate 6 (under the Yankee Stadium sign) was very cool. There are pictures of different former (and current?) Yankee players. When you walk through it you get the feeling you are walking into somewhere special.

Other than the the Cubs not hitting or pitching well, the experience was very good. They seemed to pull off having the feel of the old historic place but with all the new modern comforts.

We also made it to Citi on Friday, we didn't explore as much because the wife and I got there at different times (her after the game started) and the weather didn't make it that fun to get out from under the overhang we were under. My overall feeling of the place was that it didn't have much character. It didn't seem all the dissimilar to Great American Ballpark in Cincy. The one thing they just absolutely NAILED with Citi is the Jackie Robinson Rotunda. That area is totally awesome. When I walked into the place I was in awe of how nice it was. I actually thought it was the coolest place in either of the new places.

Thanks for the iReport, Alex!

Another from Scott Proctor's Arm: Back from the Stadium: Initial thoughts.

And one from Alex Belth: Scenes from a Mall

Canseco's becomming desperate

We all didn't believe Canseco early on. Even after his book proved largely true, we still don't like to have to rely on him for our PED truths. But this... this is getting to the point of dangerous. It's getting awfully close to libel, isn't it?

Never mind that [Manny] Ramirez was asking for a mega-deal at age 36. Or that he was negotiating in a sickly economy, while weighed down by the heavy baggage of a surly reputation. Canseco will have none of it. To Canseco, the drawn-out negotiation, the lack of a long-term deal, the lack of interest all raise red flags, and so he tells the Bovard crowd that Ramirez's "name is most likely, 90%," on the list.

Canseco admits later that he has no way of knowing. But it makes sense to him, so he threw it out there -- kaboom! -- swinging for the fences, still.

If you have no idea, you can't say "most likely, 90%". You just can't.

Friday trivia fun: Top HR hitter by letter (ANSWER!)

And the answer to the trivia question:

A. Hank Aaron 755 HR
B. Barry Bonds 762 HR
C. Jose Canseco 462 HR
D. Carlos Delgado 469 HR
E. Darrell Evans 414 HR
F. Jimmie Foxx 511 HR
G. Ken Griffey Jr. 563 HR
H. Frank Howard 382 HR
I. Pete Incaviglia 206 HR
J. Reggie Jackson 563 HR
K. Harmon Killebrew 573 HR
L. Greg Luzinski 307 HR
M. Willie Mays 660 HR
N. Graig Nettles 390 HR
O. Mel Ott 511 HR
P. Rafael Palmeiro 569 HR
Q. Carlos Quintin 50 HR
R. Babe Ruth 714 HR
S. Sammy Sosa 588 HR
T. Jim Thome 541 HR
U. Chase Utley 130 HR
V. Greg Vaughn 355 HR
W. Ted Williams 521 HR
X. None
Y. Carl Yastrzemski 452 HR
Z. Todd Zeile 253 HR

Thanks for playing along! For me, Nettles surprised me the most.

Friday trivia fun: Top HR hitter by letter

Here's a trivia question: Who are the Major league all-time home run leaders for each letter of the alphabet?

I'll give you the first one:

A) Hank Aaron

Feel free to use the comments for your guesses. The answer will be posted at 4pm EST today. If anyone cheats and posts the whole answer in the comments, I will delete it!

(there is no X, by the way)

A five-point plan to get rid of PEDs

The Daily News has put together their five steps to finally rid the game of PED's. It's a pretty bold set of essays.

1. STEP ONE: Replacing the Commish
   

   He should have quit, or been fired, after the steroid tests of 2003 and then after the Mitchell Report was released in December of 2007. Yet each time, he hung on and signed another lucrative extension.
   
   "The explosion in the use of steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs occurred under Selig's 15-year tenure," said Rep. Cliff Stearns the Republican from Florida, after the Mitchell Report was made public in 2007. "I have found commissioner Selig's glacial response to this growing stain on baseball unacceptable and I have called on him to step down. This three-year extension of Selig's contract is a vote of confidence in his record, which includes taking minimal steps in ridding baseball of these drugs."
   

2. STEP TWO: Replacing the Union chief
   

   As always with Fehr, you walked away shaking your head, accustomed to his condescension yet amazed that he still doesn't get it. You'd think he'd be somewhat humbled by the shame brought upon baseball by steroids in recent years - especially since the players association is the most culpable of all parties involved - yet Fehr remains as arrogant as ever.
   
   

3. STEP THREE: Name the names
   

   So tell us everything now. Even if you're not on that list and you got away with cheating, 'fess up and you'll be granted immunity in what will be baseball's version of the gun law - turn in your syringe and there are no charges. Sure, your endorsements might take a hit, but your conscience will be clear. In America, the land of second chances, you might receive some scorn, but there will be plenty of fans eager to forgive and return to worshipfulness. Just ask Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte.
   
   

4. STEP FOUR: Tougher Testing
   

   First, let's quit denying that money is at the root of this issue. It stands to reason that as the average salary ballooned by about 700% in the two decades following 1985, players faced new pressures. The stakes were so much higher; adding five miles per hour to a fastball or overcoming tendonitis quickly was worth a fortune.
   
   

5. STEP FIVE: Zero tolerance
   

   "Ban 'em for the whole year," Red Sox slugger David Ortiz said last month.
   
   While Ortiz's suggestion is a good start, MLB needs to be tougher than its ever been before. Here's what the new punishments should be: a first offense gets you a year ban; a second offense gets you banned for life. No exceptions.
   
   

This is a major read. Take the time to do so. Whether you agree or not with their stances, it's certainly thought provoking.

The Joba Impact

Another FOTB, author Bryan Jones, was kind enough to forward me this article written by Dave Fleming from BillJamesOnline (link forthcoming, subscription required). The article postulates that the 2009 year for Joba will be significant in the determining the Yanks long term organizational strategy. It also dovetails nicely with the "debate" discussed yesterday.

In 2008 Chamberlain was again in the bullpen. It makes sense: why would anyone give the ball to a twenty-two year old who averages 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, when you have the likes of Sydney Ponson and Darrell Rasner begging for starts.
[...]
Joba Chamberlain is a barometer for where the Yankees are going. If the Yankees give him a chance; if they endure the inevitable bumps on the road, then they will be a very good team over the next decade. If the Yankees are really smart, they will extend the same chance to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, and even Alfredo Aceves.

But if they submit again to the ‘win-now’ pressures of the last thirty years, they will deny Chamberlain the chance to be great, they will handicap their franchise against teams like Tampa Bay and Boston and Toronto, and they will rob the rest of us the pleasure of watching a great career unfold.

I think this is pretty fair and reasonable.

As if you didn't already know this

Not new news here, but the average (non-premium, whatever that means) ticket prices are in:

• According to Team Marketing Report, the Yankees' average, non-premium ticket for 2009 is $72.97 and their Fan Cost Index to take a family of four to a game is $410.88.
• The Red Sox had topped the ticket cost list since 1996 and the FCI standings since 2001. For 2009, their average ticket is $50.24 and their FCI is $326.45.
• TMR said the Mets' non-premium tickets average $36.99 and their FCI is $258.97.

That's just silly. On average, it will cost 45% more to see a game at Yankee Stadium than in Fenway. Let that roll around in your head for a bit. While you do that, I will continue to curse Randy Levine.

Interesting tidbits

From a list of 100 random things about the Red Sox, Rays and Yanks:

16. While no team stole more bases in the American League than the Rays last season (142), the downside was that no team was caught more often (50). Their stolen base success rate of 74 percent trailed both the Sox (77) and the Yankees (75)

19. There are no pitchers who have pitched for all three franchises, although Wade Boggs pitched in mop-up duty for the Yankees and the Rays. The only four players who played in the majors for all three franchises are:

• Wade Boggs -- hit .338 for Boston, .313 for New York, and .289 for Tampa Bay.
• Jose Canseco -- hit 52 homers for Boston, 6 for New York, and 43 for Tampa Bay.
• John Flaherty -- played 49 games for Boston, 134 for New York, and 471 for Tampa Bay.
• Rey Sanchez -- had 357 at bats for Boston, 181 for New York, and 285 for Tampa Bay.

35. Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner was successful on 83 percent of his steal attempts in the minors. He has been successful in 13 out of 14 major-league attempts.

40. The Yankees were 77-0 last year when going into the ninth inning leading, but 1-64 when they entered the ninth trailing.

88. The Yankees had 49 comeback wins in 2008.

100. In six seasons with Minnesota, David Ortiz hit 58 homers, in six seasons with Boston he's gone deep 231 times. He has hit the most homers against Tampa (34), and has 25 against the Yankees.

Casting ARod in The Babe's shadow

Good FOTB Ron Rollins, usually at home at Baseball Over Here, jumps headlong into a very interesting post drawing a parallel from The Babe to ARod, noting their similarities.

Babe Ruth, meet your soul mate and counterpart, Alex Rodriguez. Because you are one and the same. The only things that separate you are time and perception. You are the most famous, and the best, ballplayers of your time. Your lives are parallel, and inseparable. You are larger-than-life, cardboard cutouts of the same persona. The only difference between you is that the Babe is still revered as the greatest figure in baseball, and the savior of the game after the Black Sox scandal. And Alex Rodriguez is reviled and considered to be the destroyer of the game. Why?

Quite a heavy ball to throw, but I think Ron does an admirable job. Where I disagree with Ron, or really where I think Ron misses something, is the role of the media then versus now. The Babe's off-field "distractions" were stories of lore, embraced and embellished. The world was wholly different than it is now. If blogs, ESPN, TMZ and Deadspin were around in the 1920's, maybe things would have been different or at least viewed differently. But the writers back then were in the "idol making" business, not like they are now. [Can you imagine how the Yanks band of brothers in the 1960's would have been viewed and followed if today's media were available then? The Mick, Whitey, Billy...the carousing was legendary but only available via stories. Can you imagine if there were camera phones and digital cameras?]

Nonetheless, I'm strongly recommending that you have a read of Ron's article over at BaseballdeWorld. This is Ron's new paid writing gig and it's important that we support efforts like this.

Video tour of the New Stadium

Thanks, LoHud of the Rings:

Wallace: RP more important than SP

Wallace Matthews, a favorite to be sure, has a general theory: A great 2 inning RP is more valuable than a 6 inning SP. He uses this theory to support claims that Joba Chamberlain would be better off (and more valuable) at a set up man to Mo than as a starter.

The Yankees, who have an abundance of guys to start their games this year, think it's a good idea to take the greatest two-inning pitcher since Mariano Rivera, circa 1996, and turn him into just another starter.

I think they're nuts.

The reality with starters is that they are six-inning pitchers on most days, seven- and eight-inning pitchers on their best days.

In four out of every five starts, they are going to need a guy to come charging out of that bullpen in the seventh inning to hold the game until the closer gets there.

With all due respect, I think Matthews is nuts. There are so many ways to dissect this, but I will stick to my basic mantra: Follow the money.

Top starters signed this off-season:

1. CC Sabathia, NYY, 7 years, $161 million
2. AJ Burnett, NYY, 5 years, $82.5 million
3. Derek Lowe, ATL, 4 years, $60 million

Top closers/set-up men signed this off-season:

1. Frankie Rodriguez, NYM, 3 years, $36 million
2. Kyle Farnsworth, KCR, 2 years, $9.25 million (sorry, I had to include him)

Follow the money. If closers (or, gasp) set-up men were so valuable, they'd be signing the big contracts. But it's the horses in the rotation that pull the sled and are paid accordingly. The Yanks have developed/found a solid bullpen this year that could do the job at least as well as Joba could. Maybe not better, but close to on par. The total cost of the entire bullpen, minus Mo, is less than they are paying for Andy Pettitte, by far. And by all accounts, they are a pretty darned good bunch. Their 2008 bullpen was among the best in the game and they return largely intact. K-Rod set the all time record for saves in a season last year and had to settle for a contract half the value as he imagined. Blame it on the economy if you wish, but the truth is, closers are not as rare as true ace pitchers. Perhaps Joba won't evolve into an ace, but if he can be a solid #2 or #3 for a decade, to me, that's worth more.

At some point in the not-to-distant future, Mo will retire. Could Joba elevate himself to closer at point? Absolutely. But what if, in the course of the next 2-3 years, Joba really finds himself as a starter? What if he becomes the pitcher many think he can become? Would Matthews then think moving him to a closer role would be better solution for the Yanks? What if farmhands like Mark Melancon continue to develop and become the logical heir apparent to Mo? If Joba does mature well, I think he has significantly more value as a starter than a closer.

I say that's like hiring Picasso to paint your garage door or asking Mozart to come up with a toothpaste jingle. Many can start; few can finish. Joba can finish. He was a great setup man, and someday he'll be a great closer. Those commodities are a lot scarcer on the market than starting pitchers.

No!!!! Many can set-up, few can be an ace starter. Mo Rivera and guys like Trevor Hoffman are the exceptions, not the rule. Closers generally last a handful of years then flame out. Rare are the guys who can do it as well and for as long as Mo and Hoffman.

All of this said, my stance will change if Joba proves that he can't handle the rigors of making 33 starts a year. If he's more fragile than the Yanks envision, I will change my tune. But if he is simply in the learning process of what it takes to be a consistent and reliable starter, we have to at least find out, don't we? Simply taking a small sample from the yo-yo 2008 season and applying it to the balance of Joba's career life expectancy is foolish.

Last year, freed from the stifling caution of The Joba Rules, he broke down about 90 innings into his first year as a starter. Even before the injury, he went beyond six innings only once in 12 starts. This spring, his velocity has fluctuated from the mid-90s down to the high 80s.

Joba has the tools and the mindset to start and to close. His greatest value to the team and to himself is as a starter. I think the Yanks are correct in giving Joba the chance to find himself as a starter before panicking and dumping him into the 'pen.


UPDATE: Several others had good takes on this today, either linked directly or not:

• Neyer's take (which reads awfully close to mine!)
• ShysterBall (linked here, thank you)
• The Common Man (also linked to here)
• New Stadium Insider (linked here)
• MLB Notebook (linked here)
• Rivera's Cutter (not linked here, but similar theme)

The Voice of God retires

This is a sad day for anyone who has loved hearing Bob Sheppard call a game at Yankee Stadium. I'm happy for him that he can ride off into the sunset but I will sure miss him.

Paul Doherty, a friend and agent who has represented Sheppard, said Sheppard’s son, Paul, told him about Sheppard’s plans on Wednesday morning.

“I think Bob just wants to take it easy and no longer have the pressure of, ‘Can he? Will he? Or won’t he?’” Doherty said in an e-mail message. “And, at 98, who can blame him?”

He's 98?!? Other reports had him "in his 90's", but to be 98....wow.


Enjoy the second half of your life, Bob.

Another poll: It's the about the money

Another week, another poll:

The high price of going to a game is now the No. 1 problem in Major League Baseball, a new Associated Press-Knowledge Networks poll of fans shows.

Soaring salaries and steroids dominated fans' worries in past AP surveys. But with opening day less than a week away, the nation's recession is delivering the biggest blow.
[...]
But the cost of tickets, concessions, parking and everything else added up to fans' main concern. The toll of attending a game was tops at 45 percent, followed by player salaries (29 percent), steroids/drugs (19 percent) and the length of games (6 percent).

• Nearly 60 percent of fans said no player who used steroids or performance-enhancing drugs should get into the Hall of Fame.
• 85 percent said all 104 names on the list of players who tested positive for drugs in 2003 should be made public. So far, only Alex Rodriguez has been identified.
• 60 percent said they were not interested in the World Baseball Classic -- the preseason tournament involving major leaguers that was won by Japan for the second time.

Of course, the fools out there (hey, nothing personal, ok?) continue to blame the labor for getting whatever they can, rather than bashing management and ownership and the Commissioner's Office.

"I'm not happy about the prices," [a fan] said this week at the Indians' new camp. "Every sports team in America, every professional athlete, is out of line.

"We have people losing their jobs, and CC Sabathia -- I love him, he was my favorite -- he gets more millions than a third-world country's national budget?"

Only in America. Stop blaming the labor, please. If you hate the salaries and everything that goes along with it, start voting with your wallet. Stop going to games. Stop buying merchandise. Pull back on the concession purchases, even if it means one fewer $8 beer. But bashing the players is just silly and lazy. And wrong. Should Sabathia have offered to take less to make his owners richer, because the difference wasn't going to fund teachers' salaries or municipal infrastructure? Should Teix have told the Yanks that he'll take only $100m and to donate the balance to the TARP fund pool? Would you?

We'll see the pullback in team revenues this summer, particularly in hard hit areas like Detroit. Will we see a resetting of the free agent scale, aside from upper echelon players that the Yanks and Sox eventually need? Maybe only then. And if the ticket pricing schemes that the Yanks are foisting upon us backfires, perhaps the Yanks Ponzi Scheme collapses, too.

Teix's impact on team defense

From that uber-forecaster and sometimes ESPN contributor Nate Silver (Insider access, required):

Yankees (2008 FRAA: –26 2009 Projection: +9)
First basemen are rarely impact defenders, but two-time Gold Glove winner Mark Teixeira is a significant exception. Plus he replaces Jason Giambi, who had only slightly less range than the Miller Huggins monument at Yankee Stadium. If Jorge Posada has trouble coming back from right shoulder surgery, take note: Backup José Molina, one of the best defensive catchers in the game, threw out 44% of potential basestealers last year.

[Note: the Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) metric measures the runs saved or lost relative to the MLB average]

Sorry to get all "statty" on you today, first with WAR and now with FRAA.

No April Fool's joke: Ponson named Royals starter

Have fun, KC fans. That up-and-coming prospect, Luke Hochevar, sent to the minors while Ponson will get the nod. Good times a'coming in KC. At least they have good BBQ.

It doesn’t matter, it seems, that veteran right-hander Sidney Ponson gave up seven runs in five innings Tuesday in a 7-2 loss to the Oakland A’s.

The Royals seem ready, regardless, to anoint him as the fourth member of their rotation — albeit not officially.
[...]
Ponson was sharply critical of his performance — “It wasn’t good at all,” — but Hillman chose to emphasize the positive.

“I’m not disappointed,” he said. “I’m disappointed in the results, but I’m not disappointed in what he brings to the table. Obviously, you’d like to see better production.”

What, exactly, does Hillman think that Ponson can bring to the table besides a hearty appetite, an caustic persona and sub-par pitching skills?

Pinto's previews: AL East edition

David Pinto's been running his divisional previews as we lead up to Opening Day and today he's got his AL East Preview. You might need to have a grasp about what "WAR" means, and I'm not talking about the 1970 song by Edwin Starr. Before we get to Pinto's preview, let's define WAR, thanks to tangotiger:

WAR is wins above replacement. Replacement is defined very specifically for my purposes: it’s the talent level for which you would pay the minimum salary on the open market, or for which you can obtain at minimal cost in a trade.

If you want to actually try to calculate it yourself, have a ball.

With that as a background, here are Pinto's projections:

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position player WAR: 28.2
• Starters WAR: 12.5
• Closer WAR: -0.7
• Total WAR: 40.0
• Said Pinto: "Without much effort other than normal improvement, I can see Tampa Bay bringing their core WAR up to 44. They are in a good position to compete and repeat."

Boston Red Sox

• Position player WAR: 29.2
• Starters WAR: 15.6
• Closer WAR: 3.0
• Total WAR: 47.8
• Said Pinto: "The Red Sox come into the season in better shape than the Rays, but Tampa Bay looks like they have more upside, and the Red Sox more downside."

New York Yankees

• Position player WAR: 26.6
• Starters WAR: 23.1
• Closer WAR: 3.1
• Total WAR: 52.8
• Said Pinto: "Without any help from the bench, New York is looking at a season with their wins in the high 90s. That’s the floor, not the ceiling. The Yankees are going to be tough to beat unless everything goes wrong for them."

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position player WAR: 16.1
• Starters WAR: 12.2
• Closer WAR: 1.0
• Total WAR: 29.3
• Said Pinto: "The Blue Jays do have some upside, they are likely to have the curvature of the earth between them and Tampa Bay, Boston and New York by August."

Baltimore Orioles

• Position player WAR: 24.2
• Starters WAR: 4.4
• Closer WAR: 0.4
• Total WAR: 29.0
• Said Pinto: "Adam Eaton, one of the worst pitchers in the majors over the last two years, pulls down the third spot in the rotation, and it gets worse from there. The Orioles offense is going to need to be a lot better than they project to win with this staff. Still, they may be good enough to finish ahead of the Blue Jays."

And finally, Pinto's views on each team's chance on winning the division:

1. Yankees, 32%
2. Red Sox, 30%
3. Rays, 28%
4. Blue Jays, 6%
5. Orioles, 4%