Slaying the Golden Goose

What if the Yanks really DID pull their offer to CC and stuck by it? (I don't think that's going to happen, but play along for a moment) According to a contact of Bill Maddon from the Daily News, it could be the professional death of Sabathia's agent:

According to industry sources, it was Genske and not Cashman who asked for the meeting, although the Yankee GM is just as anxious to find out Sabathia's intentions now that the big lefty has had a couple of weeks to mull the six-year, $140 million offer that would make him the highest-paid pitcher in history. The reason Genske wanted the meeting, said one source, is that the agent is trying to buy more time for another team more to Sabathia's liking to approach the Yankee bid.

With each passing day, the likelihood of that lessens considerably. "(Genske) has to be concerned about them pulling the offer and moving on to the other (free agent) pitchers," the source said. "If he blows this deal, he's dead as an agent. For one thing, who's going to approach that $140 million if the Yankees are out of it? Sabathia winds up with a deal $20 million less than Barry Zito? Like I said, (Genske's) dead."

I honestly must admit, I forgot about the using of Zito's dollar figure as one benchmark. Yes, that deal is for 7 years at an AAV of $18m, but agents (and players) like to point to the TOTAL dollar mark as well as the AAV. Setting a high in both must be nirvana. Pissing away that chance, however unlikely I think that is, could indeed be professional suicide.

Also in Maddon's article, he hints that Cashman might go to a 5th year on Burnett, if need be. This must be spooking Genske. And they like Sheets, too. And they make and spend a lot of money. And the sun rises in the East.

Now that the Atlanta Braves have established the A.J. Burnett market at four years, $15 million per with an easily attainable vesting fifth-year option, it is believed the Yankees now were willing to go a fifth year for the oft-injured righty. Similarly, they were prepared to make a multiyear offer to Ben Sheets, who has a far worse injury history than Burnett.

"There's nothing more ominous for all the clubs here operating in this economy than the Yankees being desperate for pitching," said one agent Sunday night. "They don't seem to care what it costs them to get it."

Clarifying my Peavy "obsession"

Just to clarify, I'd love to have Jake Peavy on the Yanks...at a cost. Not ANY cost. A cost that is better for us than them.

I merely thought that Peavy would be a great addition to the rotation, but not as a de facto #1 pitcher. I have also maintained that the Yanks should just sit back and wait for the market to come their way. The Braves are seemingly out of the equation. The Cubs appear to be the leader but all indications are that it's going to require a 3rd team to get that done. The Cardinals are out, too. Perhaps after dealing Khalil Greene and not re-signing Hoffman (as I wondered aloud here) the Padres don't need to shed Peavy's salary.

My premise consists of this: The Padres have gone so far out on the ledge with Peavy that it'd be nearly impossible to turn back with him still on the team. The team needs to bring payroll WAY down. Therefore, at some point, they will NEED to deal Peavy, even if it's for $0.75 on the dollar (or worse). And with the economy cratering, the Yanks remain one of the very few teams that could absorb Peavy's contract...a contract that, this summer, looked better than it does now. Peavy's contract averages around $15m a year for the next four years or so.

So let me ask you this: If you could get Peavy (especially after getting Sabathia, a big leap of faith) for a few AAAA type players and one younger prospect with upside, wouldn't that make sense to help fill out a rotation? Remember, Peavy's contract is an albatross at this point for other teams considering trading for him. The higher the contract being absorbed (in total dollars and years), the less in return the trading team can expect to receive.

My fears and concerns about Peavy have been documented here. To refresh:

• Peavy faced only 69 batters in innings 7-9
• With only 27 games started, Peavy averaged facing 2.56 batters after the 6th inning
• Batters hit .290 against him later in games
• Peavy faced only 38 batters after throwing his 105th pitch; Averaged 106 pitches per game in 2008 (103 PC/game for a career).
• Peavy's away ERA in 2008 was 4.28; .258 Batting Average Against (BAA)
• Peavy's home ERA in 2008 was 1.75; .205 BAA
• Peavy's almost a neutral GB/FB pitcher, with a 1.11 GB:FB ratio in 2008, in line with career numbers. The bigger Petco keeps the flyballs within the fences for long outs.
• K-rate of 8.60 lowest since 2003, down from 9.67 in 2007. As a result, his K/BB rate of 2.81 was also a low since 2003 and down from 3.53 last year.
  
  My thought on Peavy-to-the-Yanks remains this: If the Yanks can dictate their price (ie: not Hughes), then go for it.

Would the ultimate "cost" for Peavy be any worse than Ben Sheets? Both have been exclusively NL pitchers, never pitching in the East. Both have had injury problems, though Sheets' history is longer and obvious. Peavy has won a Cy Young. Sheets would cost draft picks as compensation and would likely require at least a 3 year committment; Peavy a 4 year. Peavy would cost more developed young players versus draft picks.

Peavy would be "cheaper" than Burnett in total dollars and likely years (4 vs. 5). But Burnett's proven himself in the AL East and that means something to me.

Don't get me started on Derek Lowe; adding a 37 year old for 3 or 4 years is absurd. I'd rather take 5 years of Burnett than 3-4 of Lowe, since they seem to be both asking for the moon in AAV salary.

But what if Peavy was the 2nd or 3rd pitcher the Yanks added this off-season? That'd be a nice rotation, no? Again, only if the cost was in the Yanks favor.

In case you were wondering...

In case you were wondering about how the teams help the players prepare for the season, particularly the younger guys... From Yanks Eric Hacker, via email:

"They give us a schedule for the whole off season. It has day to day showing everything that we need to do. Now it is split up between pitchers and position players. There is also different agility stuff depending on if you are a pitcher, infield, outfield, or a catcher. It is up to the player to find a place to work out. I know some guys have personal trainers, work out in groups and some work out by themselves. Everybody has there own thing they like to do. Also our throwing programs are different for pitchers and position player."

I hope they treat it more seriously than I handled my "suggested summer reading list".

IIATMS Exclusive: Catching up with Mike Hargrove

During a quiet stretch a few weeks back, I went digging in SI.com’s Vault. For those of you who aren’t aware, SI put their old articles online. [My bookmark to the author’s favorite baseball stories can be found here] One of those articles I wanted to re-read was one by Gary Smith entitled “The Ripples From Little Lake Nellie”. For those who don’t remember, it was more than 15 years ago when Cleveland Indians pitchers Steve Olin and Tim Crews were tragically killed in a boating accident during Spring Training. Bobby Ojeda was seriously injured in the accident.

The article got me wondering where how then-Indians manager Mike Hargrove handled the entire incident and where are the families now. I was lucky enough to reach Mr. Hargrove, who kindly agreed to speak with me about this incident. (Please note that this was a chat about a horrible event that claimed the lives of two MLB players, and nearly a third. I had no intentions of asking Mr. Hargrove much about his 2007 resignation from the Mariners.)

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

It Is About The Money, Stupid: Mr. Hargrove, thank you for taking the time to chat with me regarding this sensitive story. Can you tell me a bit about where you are these days?
Mike Hargrove: Right now, I’m back in Cleveland. We moved here in 1994 after living in Texas. We’ve raised our kids here and they’re mostly living in the area, too.


IIATMS: Where do you stand with managing? Any plans or desires to return to the game?
MH: Right now, I am not affiliated with any team. I’m not ready to go back. I’ve had some offers but right now, I’m enjoying this time. At some point, I’d like one more chance to manage in the majors.


IIATMS: I’d like to go back to the tragic incident in 1993. How did you hear about the accident?
MH: I had spent the afternoon with two of my coaches playing golf. Afterwards, we were all excited to see the Space Shuttle launch later that day since we heard that we’d be able to see it from our place [in Florida]. I remember being disappointed that was cancelled. My wife and I had some friends over for dinner. The phone rang. It was our strength coach Fernando Montes and I was irritated as it was our day off.

Fernando told me there was an accident and that “Oly’s gone”. I asked “Gone where?” and only then did I realize what happened. I remember feeling the blood drain to my fingers and going numb. I got on the phone with GM John Hart and then went over to visit the scene.


IIATMS: What did you find when you got there?
MH: We met Fernando who guided us to the house. We arrived and saw the big klieg lights out back. I could see a bass boat up on the shore. We went into a house full of crying babies. I remember talking with Patti [Olin] but the rest is pretty much a blur. John Hart and Dan O’Dowd came over. I remember going to get Steve’s keys from his car for his wife when a deputy stopped me, saying “You don’t want to go over there.”


IIAMTS: How did you tell the team?
MH: Dan [O’Dowd], John [Hart] and I went to the hospital to see Bobby Ojeda who was in critical condition. We were there all night. We then left for the training facility. By 6:30am, the team started arriving. By that point, they all knew. We cancelled all team activities and basically sat around talking, sharing. It was a big group hug. I gave the guys the choice to go get some work in, and many did as a way of coping.


IIAMTS: How did it affect the team?
MH: I’m really not sure. I know that everyone was totally committed to playing hard. Thankfully we had veterans like Ted Power who were leaders.

They say “time heals all wounds”. It really doesn’t. Time doesn’t heal the wounds; it merely scabs over until it gets ripped off again.


IIAMTS: How did the team memorialize Olin and Crews?
MH: We didn’t do much, other than committing ourselves to go about our jobs and play as hard as possible.

[IIATMS Note: In response to the accident that took Olin and Crews in 1993, the Indians wore a patch on their sleeves of their jerseys. It consisted of a baseball with their numbers on it. Olin's #31 is on the left, with an arrow above. Crews' #52 is on the right, with a star above it. The Dodgers also wore a patch with Crews' #52 for the 1993 season.]

The Indians planted two small trees outside the facility along with a plaque. Those three foot trees are now big trees that are being moved to the Indians new facility in Arizona.


IIAMTS: How did you memorialize Olin and Crews?
MH: I really didn’t do that much. I felt that going overboard would trivialize things.


IIAMTS: How often do you think of them?
MH: Not as much these days, less than before. I rarely think about the accident but more about the players.


IIAMTS: Do you speak with the families?
MH: We’ve lost contact with Laurie (Crews). We’re still in contact with Patty. She’s remarried a great guy. We were with her whole family including in-laws when she visited in Seattle.


IIAMTS: Where are they now? How are they doing?
MH: Kevin Wickander [Olin’s best buddy in the bullpen] is in Phoenix. I last saw him in 2007 after Spring training. Wick’s gone through some tough times [see notes below] but he’s turned the corner. He’s a good man; was then, is now.

As far as the Olins and the Crews, they remain part of the Cleveland family.


IIAMTS: Do you think this experience changed the way you relate to the players as a manager? The article painted you as a disciplinarian who pulled a 180 degree shift.
MH: I definitely went too far the other the direction after the incident. I was excusing too many things. I was creating an alibi for the players so not to hammer them when they needed to be hammered. Eventually I got back to an enforcing style and discipline. I began to treat them like men again, not kids.The accident did make me a better person and manager though. Definitely more empathetic.


IIAMTS: So what’s next for Mike Hargrove?
MH: I was asked to work with the Italian team to prepare for the WBC, so I’m looking forward to doing that. After that, I’ll be back working with the Liberal, KS Bee-Jays. I played for them in 1970, the year I was drafted. About 45 players have played in the majors after playing for the Bee-Jays, including Ron Guidry. And I’ll be looking for that last shot to manage [in the majors].

[IIATMS Note: Active players who have played for the Bee-Jays include: Rich Harden, Ian Kinsler, Hunter Pence, Kelly Shoppach, Troy Percival and Scott Hairston.]

####

I'd like to thank Mr. Hargrove for taking the time to chat about this subject. To his credit, he seeemed to genuinely appreciate the chance to talk about this story with me, just some guy with a blog who he's never met before. When make interview requests like this, I'm not really sure what to expect. Mr. Hargrove got back to me after midnight the day I emailed him with my ideas. He encouraged me to call at my convenience, not his. I've gotten to be quite cynical and jaded over the years, but when a man with Mr. Hargrove's playing and managing resume treats you with that level of respect without ever meeting you, I just feel pretty darn encouraged.

Thanks for reading. I appreciate it more than you know.



Additional reading, notes:

• Mike Hargrove’s Wikipedia page, the Human Rain Delay, coaching and playing records
• Mike’s decision to manage the Liberal KS Bee Jays. Noteworthy quotes:
  "I found that for the first time in my life, I was having to work at competing. Some people said it was because of a conflict with Ichiro," he said. "That was absolutely untrue. I felt like I had lost my edge."
  ......
  "I'm enjoying this. I'm having fun," Hargrove said. "I would like to manage again in the big leagues someday. But I'm not unhappy here by any stretch of the imagination."
• Jayson Stark’s story from 2003, ten years after the accident
• Another story from 2003, ten years after the accident
• Kevin Wickander’s cautionary tale
• ESPN.com’s story about Hargrove’s sudden resignation in 2007
• Bobby Ojeda’s Wikipedia page

Waiting in the weeds on Peavy

I tell ya, I am not making this stuff up. Not until the ink is drying on another team's letterhead will I believe Peavy won't wind up in NY. There been a confluence of factors that keep pointing back to the Yanks (Braves trading for Vazquez, Cubs resigning Dempster, economy worsening, Yanks looking to gobble up as much SP as possible, glut of OF's, etc.).

If the Yankees come up empty on Sabathia, Burnett and Lowe, they could try to make a push for San Diego's Jake Peavy, who remains on the trading block. A club official confirmed the Yankees' interest in Peavy, though he noted that the 2007 NL Cy Young winner has made it clear that he has no desire to pitch in the AL.

Peavy has a full no-trade clause, but as the Padres desperately look to dump payroll - San Diego Thursday dealt shortstop Khalil Greene and his $6.5 million salary to the Cardinals for a pair of prospects - they could ask him to add teams to his list.

"As of now, we have not discussed Jake's willingness to accept a trade to the Yankees," [Peavy's agent, Barry] Axelrod, said in an e-mail. "Simply stated, we have taken the position that we will not spend time analyzing any potential trade until the Padres present it to us as a real possibility. Until then, we sit and wait."

Just like the Yankees.

Except I don't think that the Peavy situation is a binary one. I think the Yanks will take a run at him regardless of who else they sign and no matter the timing, if the Padres asking price becomes palatable.

Settle down, fellas

I've gotten a number of emails and IM's wondering any number of things related to the Yanks and Sabathia:

• Why hasn't he signed?
• Doesn't this look bad for the Yanks?
• What if the Yanks don't get any of the big pitchers available?
• 摩登美发课??摩登优女帮强档美容课堂，为女性度身定做的贴心课堂
• The incredible pet nail trimmer
• Increase you income by becomming a Sociologist!

The last three are actual emails, scary as it might seem (I didn't print any of the adult-themed ones!).

Ten things to consider:

1. Sabathia would rather be in California, all things equal. So would I, if the truth be told.
2. All things are not equal; the Yanks can pay more than anyone and will likely do so.
3. Sabathia might really test the "It's About The Money, Stupid" mantra
4. Sabathia is taking his time on this major life decision. He has that right and good for him to take it. It might be a no-brainer for you and I, but he should be allowed the time to make up his mind. The last thing I'd want is for him to suffer from buyer's remorse.
5. Sabathia is probably hoping to see either LA team make an offer, though it appears the Dodgers won't have the wherewithal to do so.
6. His hometown Giants have just overpaid for Renteria and do not appear to have the pockets to pay two pitchers (CC and Zito) a combined $40+ million.
7. I don't think this reflects negatively on the Yanks; if they were located in LA, this would have been done already.
8. The Yanks are not the destination they were in 2000, 2001, 2002, when they were making regular World Series appearances. The team is getting old. The beat writers are incessantly negative towards everyone but Mo and Jeter. Ownership is erratic, and that might be a very kind term to call Hank and Hal. And they play in the AL East, home of the reigning AL Champs and the 2007 World Series Champs. It's rough out there.
9. The economy really IS in the crapper and really WILL affect ALL teams, Yanks included. Even with the new palace.
10. THE WINTER MEETINGS HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED YET! Folks, we all want the news faster than ever but give these things the chance to run their natural course.

Cashman is out West, talking to Boras and reportedly scheduled to chat with Sabathia. Take a deep breath.

Sabathia is a different case entirely, and the reason he is stalling, to those who know him, is just as the general manager suspected: his first choice is not New York. Sabathia is from Vallejo, Calif., near the Bay Area, and it is well known that his preference is to play for a team on the West Coast. But the money is elsewhere.

"It's not that he doesn't want to be a Yankee; that's not it at all," said a friend of Sabathia's, who was granted anonymity because Sabathia had not authorized him to speak on his behalf. "It's just the aspect of being out there, his family, that kind of stuff."

Like I have said regarding Peavy, don't count out the Yanks until the ink is drying on some other team's letterhead. Until then, kick back, relax. It's Friday, the weekend is in sight.

Yawn: ARod to play for Dominican Republic

Please people, let's not make this any more dramatic than it deserves. Unfortunately, it's going to be another will he/won't he? situation again, just like in 2006. The WBC Hokey-Pokey.

“He wants to play for the Dominican team,” [David] Ortiz said by telephone Thursday. “We’ll talk about it now after he gets here, and he’ll probably announce it here.”

You can insert your own joke/headline here. Here are a few to get you started:

• ARod to play for the DR; Vegas odds for the US spike
• ARod to play for the DR; US team rejoices
• ARod and Big Papi together at last; Madonna on rampage
• ARod to reject Madonna's request to play for the Italian team
• ARod to wear man-scarf while playing for the DR squad
• ARod to ask Madonna to sign permission slip to play for the DR in the WBC
• DR to ARod: Gonna dress you up in my love jersey

The piranhas attack the hippo

In a spring training game, the Minnesota Twins will get to face the Netherlands. If there's a funny bone in the Karma Gods, we'll be able to see Sir Sidney facing one of his former teams. And I hope they chew him to bits (emphasis mine below).

The Dutch team is using the Spring Training facilities of the Pittsburgh Pirates in Bradenton in training camp and will likely face the Major League team in an exhibition match. On March 5th they will make the bus ride to Fort Myers to play against the Minnesota Twins. They are in Pool D with Panama, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, playing at the Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, which has hosted Major League games of the Montreal Expos in the past. The Netherlands open the tournament against the Dominicans.

I can't see the Flyin' Dutchmen lasting too long in that Pool. I'll take the under, whatever it might be.



Thanks to Ron Rollins for the link. I don't want to steal from ShysterBall but Ron's earned the title of "International Baseball Correspondent"

Pettitte approaching hypocrisy

This is a bit difficult. I am a big Andy Pettitte fan. I was sad to see him go in 2003 but I know (or I thought I knew) that he marches to a beat of a different drummer. That he wanted to go be near his family was a totally acceptable answer for my feeble brain. When he came back in 2007, I welcomed him. When he had a poor year in 2008, I was disappointed. I also figured that he'd finally make good on his oft-thought aloud retirement plans. Which would be cool with me; an athlete leaving when he wanted, with money on the table. That's conviction.

Fast forward to now. Andy wants to play another year in NY. The Yanks would like him back, only a rate that's more commesurate with his current performance levels and the current economic conditions. This is why the Yanks declined offering him arbitration. Andy made $16m in an exercised option year in 2008 and would be due for at least that if the Yanks offered arb and he accepted (which appears more than likely).

Today, I read that his agents (the highly regarded Hendricks Brothers) are trying to get Andy at worst a salary on par with 2008, if not more. This is out of touch with reality, in my opinion. The other day, over at Shysterball, there was some tearing to shreds of NY Post's Joel Sherman's claims that Pettitte would be a phony if he signed elsewhere. Myself included. I made this comment: "If he wants more than $16 million and can get it elsewhere, godbless. If he wants what his performance and market dictates, great." And I stick by it. Sorta. I wouldn't try to keep him out of the Old Timers Day and stuff like that, but he's toeing the line of hypocrisy.

Here's the thing, Andy has said the only team he wants to play for is the Yanks.

“I mean, to tell you the truth, like I’ve told you all a hundred times, I’ve made it loud and clear where I’d like to play at,” Pettitte, 36, said in a telephone interview. “I’m just basically sitting here letting my agents do their job really.”

The Yanks have offered him $10m to pitch this season in pinstripes. To me, that's a fair and reasonable salary. So if he's more than chasing the last dollar, he'll follow his heart and sign with NY. If he's only about the highest dollar, he'll sign elsewhere. I always viewed Andy as a bit different, but if he goes against his statement, than isn't he only about the money and actually no different from any other athlete? That's OK, but I'll need to recalibrate my views on him.

Again, I won't fault Andy if he can get $16m or more from some other team, but that only brings him down in my eyes to "just another athlete". Maybe he was knocked down a few pegs with the PED issue already. Perhaps I am just slow to acknowledge these things.

As a parallel, if Sabathia's heart truly is in California, he should sign there, even if it means leaving money on the table. Everyone --Yanks fans especially-- would respect someone putting money where their mouth is. If CC comes out and says "Guys, the offers were incredibly generous but at the end of the day, I want to be closer to my family and friends in California. I trust you understand", we'd all be disappointed and bummed but in a quieter moment, we'd all respect it.

The same holds with Pettitte. If he wants to be only in NY, forego the additional dollars (you've already earned $108 million over your career) and sign where you want to be. Will the additional $4-6m really mean anything anyways?

Lastly, Pettitte's actual market value is probably higher than $10m, likely $2-3m more than that. If everyone's reasonable (a stretch?), I could see Andy getting the Yanks to bump their offer into the $13m range and Pettitte signing. Hugs and kisses on the podium.

Cy Young Christmas Tree

Get yours soon, supplies are limited.

The making of a Mets hater

From reader, Alex K, via the comments area, a truly priceless description on the NY fan situation:

I'm a transplant to NY so the Yanks and Mets are almost part of my daily life. I've found that both teams have their stereotypical fans, but my goodness Mets fans annoy the crap out of me. So that is why I am no longer a Yankee hater, because of Mets fans.

When you are able to convert someone from being a Yankee hater, that's an accomplishment, Mets fans.

Peavy, Burnett and the Braves

So the Braves traded for Javy Vazquez, one-time Yankee, most recently of the White Sox. Briefly about Javy, from my perspective. I remember the day the Yanks traded for him. I was ecstatic. I called my dad, thrilled that we got this young power arm. He was entering his prime. He had a ton of K's for Montreal (remember them?). And now he was ours. Except he flopped. My bad.

Javy's now heading back to the NL and I think this is a good short term move for the Braves. I say short-term as I am not certain how good the kids going to the White Sox are going to be. Not to mention, the final tally going to CHI hasn't been solidified. Smarter scouts will judge (once K.Law gets to it, I'll update! SEE BELOW FOR UPDATE). TheMarkSmith, diehard Braves fan, has a good take on the players going back and forth.

The Braves were once the lead for Jake Peavy's services. Now, that's all but done, in my opinion. They aren't trading their best arms (Hanson). That leaves the Cubbies as the primary target, I think, for Peavy to stay in the NL. Maybe San Fran will surprise but I don't think their farm system has anything of note to entice SD. Of course, maybe you've heard me say this before, that leaves the Yanks still lurking in the weeds, waiting for the price to become low enough to jump on. I think Towers has painted himself into a very tight corner here. SD fans will not be happy once Peavy is sent for a less than stunning package of prospects. And it will happen. Maybe not to the Yanks, but someone's going to get Peavy on the relatively cheap.

Now the Braves are reportedly exploring a 5 year offer for Burnett.

Just as they were finalizing a trade for Javier Vazquez, the Braves were preparing a five-year offer for A.J. Burnett, according to sources. Burnett, considered the No.2 starter on the market, was expected to wait for Sabathia to make the first move. But with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all apparently hesitant to give Burnett a fifth year, the 31-year-old might jump at Atlanta's offer before Sabathia makes his decision.

If Atlanta trots out a rotation of Jurrjens, Burnett and Vazquez, that's probably good enough to make things even more interesting in the NL East.

I can imagine Cashman talking to Burnett's agent, whispering that if CC goes elsewhere, a 5 year offer for Burnett's services will be faxed by lunchtime. Heck, that might be happening anyways.

And not for nothing, but I think the Yanks should be looking closely at Sheets, if they aren't already. The good guys at RAB are big on Sheets. Can't disagree, except for the fact that Burnett's proven himself in the AL East while Sheets has only succeeded in the NL Central. Biiiiig difference. That said, I think he'd make a nice addition, says the greedy one.



UPDATE: From Keith Law, as promised, who's always reliable for good scout-eriffic analysis:

The package going back to the White Sox relies heavily on one prospect, breakout slugger Tyler Flowers, to make it a solid return. Brent Lillibridge is a nice utility player who can handle playing shortstop, second or center field but who is little more than a slap-hitter without good secondary skills, limiting his upside to a bench role. Third baseman Jon Gilmore is a moderate-tools prospect with very limited feel, below-average speed, and a limited power ceiling; he reminds me of Ryan Sweeney, another player from Iowa who was hyped as an amateur beyond what his actual tools merited.

The wild card for Chicago is left-hander Santos Rodriguez, a Gulf Coast League repeater with an outstanding arm. He's a long, lanky kid whose fastball sits 95-96 mph, and he shows some feel for a breaking ball. The delivery isn't pretty, and his command is still well below average, so he probably projects as a reliever. But his upside, even in the pen, is substantial, although his probability of reaching it right now given his inexperience and delivery is not that high.

Flowers, on the other hand, is going to produce offensively at the big-league level, possibly as soon as 2010. It's not quite the way you'd draw it up -- he bars his front arm slightly with his hands all the way back and takes an all-out swing -- but he has a very good eye and raw power, particularly to left and left-center. (His 17 home runs may not look impressive, but Myrtle Beach -- high Class A -- is a horrible place to hit.) He may not hit for a high average -- I'd like to see him prove he can catch up to better fastballs, as his bat speed isn't great on top of where he starts his hands -- but he'll post a high OBP and should be a 25-plus home run guy when he's established in the majors, perhaps more in a homer-friendly park like Chicago's. Flowers' drawback is behind the plate, where he's slow and blocky and has a fringe-average arm; he'll never be a defensive asset, but the White Sox have lived with A.J. Pierzynski back there for years and won a World Series with him, so they don't seem likely to overvalue defense at catcher. If Flowers reaches or comes near his ceiling, he alone is a good return on two years of Vazquez at a slightly below-market $11 million per year. But if Flowers can't catch or has too much trouble making contact at higher levels, the rest of the package isn't likely to make up for it.

To hell with the kids; we want to win

So far, there's a clear bias towards spending that $30 million on a top free agent than having your favorite team use their community-consciousness and build 50 new ball fields for the kids. The polls are still open through Tuesday, so get out and vote early and vote often.

The poll will close Wednesday morning but the leader by a wide margin: Spend it on a free agent! Two-thirds of you want your team to spend money to make the team better rather than have your team spend it on the community.

NBC is now projecting "screw the kids" as a winner.

UPDATE: The final tally is conclusive: "screw the kids" lost by a 2:1 vote in favor of "I want my team to win". Thanks for participating. Next poll: Fake the Salvation Army donation or not.

Not that there's anything wrong with it

I really, REALLY, really don't care much about what the players wear outside the ballpark. I root for laundry, the pinstriped kind. But when ARod shows up in a vest and the kind of scarf that I see girls half his age wearing (I know this from a shopping experience with my wife this past weekend), you have to shake your head. For a guy who loves being looked at as much as he does, is he trying to be a fashionista or just some 5th Avenue mannequin?

What sort of ju-ju is Madonna putting in his already-crowded head? Why is he getting led around like a little puppy? It's a concern that Madonna is not good for this Fabergé egg.

And just sayin', what is that glazed, adoring, creepy look in his eyes? Is he fixating on Madonna's sinewy arms?

Doesn't she know that he has to win the MVP this year, an odd-numbered year? And if he has another "down" (for him) year, all hell's gonna break lose.

I want ARod to succeed, I really do. I just find this latest distraction very troubling.

Madonna? C'mon. You're 32, time to ease off the Oedipus Complex...

Now pitching for the Netherlands...

...in the WBC... none other than Fat Sidney Ponson. Though, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, he views the strength of the Netherlands team is their pitching. How can that be with Fat Sid on the hill?

I hope the USA gets the Netherlands in their bracket.


(big thanks to watcher of all baseball things international, Ron Rollins)

BABIP and baseball's luckiest/unluckiest

Some really great work is being done at THT to explore the stats that shape the game. I'm only a casual follower of this stuff but the finance guy in me finds a great appreciation in being able to tell a story with data.

This one today about BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and xBABIP (predicted BABIP) is a perfect example.

Here are their list of baseball's luckiest and unluckiest hitters of 2008:

Not really surprising to see Giambi and Swisher, together on this list. Of course, that portends well for a rebound for both, though I'm happier with the younger Swisher than I am with having Giambi back again.

No arb-eligible Yanks

I saw this post from Pete Abraham last night, but I wanted to wait to post something because I wasn't sure how I felt.

It came down to economics. The Yankees did not want to risk going to arbitration with any of their players given the salaries they made last season. To refresh your memories:

Bobby Abreu made $16 million, Andy Pettitte made $16 million and Pudge Rodriguez made $13 million. All three would have been in a position to get at least as much via arbitration and likely some sort of raise.

Meanwhile, if Mike Mussina suddenly decides to play for somebody else, the Yankees get nothing in return. Sure, that’s extremely unlikely. But that was supposedly the case for Roger Clemens, too.

Regarding Andy Pettitte: I agree, not offering arbitration was a good move. Pettitte is not worth risking a salary INCREASE and the (I believe, though I am researching this; correct me if I am wrong) biggest decrease the Yanks could offer is 20%. I like Andy, but a raise over $16M is silly given his performance and risk. I'd rather negotiate directly than be forced into binding arbitration. If Pettitte demands are on par with his 2008 salary, I'd wish him the best in finding it elsewhere.

Regarding Pudge: Obvious move.

Regarding Moose: There is no harm in offering Moose arbitration. Just in case.

Regarding Abreu: I have been wavering on Abreu which is why I decided to sleep on it. And I awoke still in conflict. On one hand, he's a solid ballplayer, quiet and steady. On the other, he's clearly a poor outfielder and would worsen an already clogged OF situation. He's also not worth a raise over his $16M last year.

The Yanks are preaching fiscal sanity out of one side of their mouth while offering Ft. Knox to Sabathia and others. Hypocrisy? Maybe. Maybe Cashman & Co. have decided it's time to go a new direction from some of these older guys.

The kneejerk reaction was to bash Cashman for not getting the arbitration draft picks (assuming those offered arbitration did not accept and signed elsewhere). Every team needs more draft picks; it's the new currency. Cashman decided that they could forego those picks in order to keep "other" salaries down so they could spend that money on areas they need more help.

Stupid is as stupid does

Sorry, but this is incredibly dumb, dangerous and stupid. And I'm not talking about what Plaxico did or didn't do because that's a whole 'nother level of idiocy.

Getting special treatment at New York-Cornell Hospital, where he gave his name as Harris Smith, saying he'd been shot at an Applebee's restaurant. Nonetheless, hospital workers recognized him as Plaxico Burress, sources said, and the gunshot was not reported, as required by law.
......
According to state law, failing to report a gunshot injury to cops is a class A misdemeanor. But when asked about the hospital's reporting policies, the spokesman said, "I don't know what the policy and protocol is on that."

To risk your medical career to protect this knucklehead is simply inexcusable. To admit eating at Applebee's is just further shame.


UPDATE: I was reminded of comedian Ron White's "you can't fix stupid" schtick while driving in today, so here's an update with the edited text:

If I could offer one piece of advice to the planet, it would be this: Don't marry for looks alone, and I'll tell you why. In a few years, when Barbara's boobs start sagging, she can get plastic surgery, have them lifted, move the nipple wherever. You can actually go to a [strip] bar, pick out a set of [boobs] and say, "I want those [boobs] on that woman." If her belly gets too big, she can get a tummy tuck and have a belly like a cheerleader. If her vision goes bad, you can have LASIK surgery and have 20/20 vision. If her hearing goes bad, they can install a device in her ear that will give you hearing as clear as it was the day you were born. But let me tell you something, folks: You can't fix stupid. There's not a pill you can take; there's not a class you can go to. Stupid is forever.

Gimme, gimme, gimme

And you wonder why politicians look so bad, so often. They are often greedy, self-absorbed beyond recognition and have no sense of shame (until they are caught). Case in point, baseball style:

Mayor Bloomberg's top aides engaged in a behind-the-scenes brawl to win a free luxury suite at the new Yankee Stadium that could wind up costing taxpayers, e-mails show.

Some of the mayor's top deputies spent months threatening and cajoling to get the free skybox. They even demanded free food and ultimately got most of what they wanted after they agreed to provide America's richest team 250 free stadium parking spaces in exchange.

In a particularly brief but scathing exchange that doesn't look good for Yanks President Randy Levine:

The Economic Development Corporation's Seth Pinsky wrote to Doctoroff that Yankees President Levine "said he would give his word" (Click to see e-mails) that if parking spaces hurt the city's rent arrangement, the Yankees would "work with us to figure out how to fix the problem."

In minutes, Doctoroff responded, "Let's not give. I don't trust [Levine]."

We, the fans, know we're being screwed in this whole ballpark thing. We know, deep down, that there's blatant corruption going on behind the scenes (mostly). But when it becomes public, that's when we can bark and yell "SEE!?!?" Except the only thing we, the fans, can do in protest is not go to the Stadium. Which will never happen. So there's little deterrent for the politicians and Yankee execs to treat us, the fans, properly.

So go enjoy the new Stadium, pay thru the nose to sit there and behold the holy temple of awesome.

It just sucks knowing you're being screwed while they smile at you, patting you on the back with one hand, emptying your wallet with the other. I think we'd rather be blissfully unaware of the corruption than knowing what's gone (or is going) on.

Play ball.

Hail to ShysterBall

For those unaware, our buddy ShysterBall has moved uptown, to The Hardball Times. Go refresh your bookmarks.