Do I smell an ambush coming?

Heading into this off-season, the Yanks shed some $88 million from their payroll (mostly from Moose, Giambi, Abreu, Pettitte, Pavano).

Sabathia will cost $23m (roughly) this year. Burnett would add another $17m. Hell, add another pitcher --either Sheets or Lowe or Pettitte-- for something like $13m. That's "only" $53m. I say only with a cheesy grin on my face, knowing that's more than many teams' entire roster. If the normal contractual increases for the existing Yanks add another $15m, we're at $68m. What does that leave in order to keep the payroll on par with 2008? Some $20m bucks.

Conveniently, you know who's gonna cost about $20m/year? Some 1B who is a switch hitter, Gold Glove-caliber defender, upstanding citizen and Don Mattingly worshipping dude (which is why he wears #23).

It just feels like the Yanks are quietly lurking on the Teix scenario. If they, at the last minute, call Boras and tell him they'll match the Nationals 8 year, $160m offer, I can see them walking off with the two best players this offseason, plus at least two other very good pitchers. The Evil Empire striking again.

Obnoxious? You betchya. At least the ownership is committed. Or should be committed. Whatever.

Things that make you go....blech

I won't go so far as to shout "PICK ATLANTA!", but I'm contemplating it. This sort of offer is preposterous, in years and AAV.

The New York Yankees, making a hard late charge to beat out the Atlanta Braves for A.J. Burnett, offered the free-agent right-hander a guaranteed five-year contract Wednesday, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The proposed deal is worth about $85 million, the source said.
......
Burnett is moving closer to making a decision on his next destination, a source told ESPN.com, and a deal could be in place as soon as Thursday.

Blech. I'm having a tough time with the extra years, the extra dollars, the extra risk. People keep saying "it's not your money; you don't have season tickets". But it offends some part of my brain that controls sense and logic. I tried to deactivate that part of my brain but failed. Three years with an attainable option 4th year would be great. Four years guaranteed, less so. Five guaranteed.... ridiculous, even with his great AL East numbers.

Looks like I'm wearing my "angry pants" today.

From MLBTradeRumors:

Yankee players have been calling Burnett, lobbying him to choose their team over the Braves.

PICK ATLANTA!

So much for working the count

So long Giambi and Abreu, perennial top 10 guys in pitches per AB. Enter Swisher and now, likely, Mike Cameron. Sure Cameron's a better CF than Melky and he's got more power, but this is a free swinger who will strike out 150+ times a year. He will also be a spry 36 by Opening Day. He owns a career .250 AVG and a beefy .340 OBP. He struck out exactly 142 times twice in the last three years, surrounding a 160 K "effort". Oy. His defense better make up for some of this.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, his Range Factor compares favorably to the league average, even last year, so that's good but how much left does he have? How good is his arm? I haven't seen a lot of him so if you have, let me know what to expect.

Remember, too, that Cameron missed 25 games last year due to a PED (amphetamines) suspension. Those 142 K's could have been north of 160.

At least CC gets an old buddy to hang with.


UPDATE: Not so fast, my friends, from MLBTradeRumors.com:

11:49am: Joel Sherman talked to a top exec involved in the talks who called the Chances of a deal "remote."
11:17am: Ken Rosenthal says the potential deal hit a roadblock over the Yankees' desire to have Milwaukee pick up part of the tab on Cameron. Also, the Brewers want a second player after Cabrera. Tom Haudricourt says the Yankees tried to unload Kei Igawa on them.
9:28am: The Cabrera for Cameron deal is close but not done, according to Joel Sherman's source. He says the Brewers could receive a pitcher as well, with the quality depending on whether they'll assume salary.
8:41am: Tom Haudricourt is not sure this is done. He says the Yankees like Bill Hall as well. The Brewers could gain quite a bit of payroll flexibility here. It'd be interesting to see all three Brewers friends (including Sabathia) move to the Yanks.

Getting CC makes Peavy happy

See, you guys keep mocking the "obsession", but I'll continue to say that "he with the biggest wallet has the most negotation power". And if your target is happier now that you've hooked Sabathia, well, you get this:

If the reports are true that the Yankees will get ace pitcher CC Sabathia, the Yankees just became more attractive to Jake Peavy, but that doesn't mean Peavy suddenly is clamoring to wear pinstripes.

"The Yankees would be more attractive if they get Sabathia," Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, said going into this week's winter meetings.

But Axelrod cautioned that Peavy prefers to stay in the National League and that New York isn't his first choice geographically.

The Cubs and Padres are deep in talks on a Peavy trade. If those talks collapse, the Yankees might become more of a factor.

Maybe you've heard me say that a time or twelve.

I'll clarify my stance one more time, lest there be any confusion. I am concerned about Peavy in the AL East. I am concerned about his arm problems as much as I am with Sheets. But he did win a Cy Young recently and can still be a quality pitcher, especially when he won't be relied upon as your number one guy. I'm concerned, period.

Picture the Yanks sitting across the table with the Padres after the Cubs deal (theoretically) falls apart, staring Towers in the face...

Cashman: Kevin, we all know you need to dump Peavy's salary. One quarter of your payroll will be sucked in by this. I'll send you Melky, Kennedy, Igawa and one other lower level prospect. Kennedy and Igawa will do fine in the NL West.
Towers: C'mon Brian, we've been friends for years. Why you doing this to me?
Cashman: Not personal, Kev, just business.
Towers: I don't like it. Who are those big guys in the corner, anyways?
Cashman: Never mind them. I feel for you; your fans already are backing away and a terrible season looms. But at least this gives you some MLB-ready talent to fill the uniforms. How's John Moores' divorce going? As brutal as we hear? Face it, Kev, you have no choice but to take this. It's the only lifeline you have left. Cubs are out. So are the Cardinals, Angels, Braves, Astros. He doesn't want to go to Boston or any other AL team. You've got this offer or you can bleed cash with a disgruntled Peavy on your roster in April.
Towers: You have no idea. I'll contact Peavy to approve the trade. You'll have the paperwork by morning. Hey, come back here with my lunch!

Neyer & Law: newest BBWAA voters

After the outcry from last year's exclusion, Keith Law and Rob Neyer (both from ESPN) have been selected to join the BBWAA. Also selected are Will Carroll and Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus.

Kudos!

Brilliant!

I sure wish I thought of this, seen at IT IS HIGH, IT IS FAR....

BREAKING: Hank Steinbrenner May Replace Obama as U.S. Senator from Illinois

Offer on the table: Six years, $140 million

Sabathia's deal: There's an opt-out

From MLBTradeRumors:

10:14am: Tim Brown and Gordon Edes of Yahoo report that the deal is for $161MM over seven years (which would top Johan's average annual value).

The deal has an opt-out clause after the first three years, which are worth $69MM. The 31 year-old Sabathia will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years, $92MM remaining on the deal. He would have to buck the opt-out trend (or renegotiate) to make this more than a three-year, $69MM deal for the Yankees. That is not necessarily a bad thing for them.

Gotta say, if CC performs SO well that he wants to opt out of the remaining four years, that'd be great. Great that the Yanks got three great years. Great that they could be out of the balance of the deal which is where the risk lies. Of course, if he underperforms, well, all bets off.

J.C. Bradbury: Yanks paying what he is worth

For the sabermetric/economists amongst us:

Apparently, CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees have agreed to a seven-year $160 million contract, which is just under $23 million per season. Previously, I had projected Sabathia to be worth $24 million in a six-year deal. (Since I made that initial estimate, I corrected a minor error in my model that resulted in a very slight undervaluing of Sabathia.)

For the next seven years, I have Sabathia valued at just under $26 million a season, so the Yankees are paying about what he is worth.

Random thought of the day: Manny & The Rays

Was thinking about the big bats out there to be scooped up and Manny came to mind. With the Rays coming off an incredible season, a possible increase in attendance, after years of being among the cheapest teams in the game... wouldn't it be something it they landed Manny as their DH?

They already have a great OF and they have a need for a big bat as DH. The team seems to be a pretty loose bunch.

Manny thrived in the AL East and would surely love to get some cuts at the Sox in a visiting uniform. We already know he kills the Yanks.

Would this make sense?

/end random thought

Tangent: NFL shenanigans

Thank you, Deadspin, for the story, the interview and the impossible-to-remove mental images. Note: contains adult language.

Sabathia's 2008: After April, wow

Was just called by my oldest buddy who commented that Sabathia wasn't "that good" last year until he got traded to the Brewers. I disagreed. Here's why:

March/April

• 6 games
• 1-4 record
• 7.88 ERA

May

• 6 games
• 2-3 record
• 2.44 ERA

June

• 5 games
• 3-1 record
• 1.89 ERA

July (CC was traded 7/7/08)

• 6 games
• 4-0
• 2.27 ERA

Sabathia vs. AL East

Here are the stats for Sabathia versus his AL East opponents, career:

Versus Boston

• 7 games
• 2-4 record, 48.1 IP
• 3.91 ERA
• 1.22 WHIP
• 35 K's

Career @ FENWAY:

• 3 games
• 1-1 record, 23 IP
• 1 CG
• 2.35 ERA
• 1.26 WHIP
• 12 K's

Versus Tampa Bay

• 11 games
• 7-1 record, 81 IP
• 2.44 ERA
• 1.04 WHIP (excl IBB)
• 73 K's

Versus Baltimore

• 9 games
• 5-0 record, 64.1 IP
• 2.38 ERA
• 0.96 WHIP
• 40 K's

Versus Toronto

• 10 games
• 7-3 record, 67.2 IP
• 3.46 ERA
• 1.03 WHIP
• 64 K's

And perhaps most amazingly...

Versus NYY

• 9 games
• 1-8 record, 49.2 IP
• 6.16 ERA
• 1.57 WHIP
• 32 K's

Now what?

I was set to get started on a whole "who's next?" posting, but came across this, which does a pretty good job of answering that question. I'll get to this deeper in a bit as I am still trying to sift thru the rubble of the Sabathia 'quake.

CC Sabathia has agreed to terms with the Yankees. If that wasn't enough to get fans excited for next year's rotation (judging by comments it is), then perhaps news of A.J. Burnett's pending pinstripes will only fortify faith in the 2009 season.

The Star-Ledger's Dan Graziano grazed the subject of A.J. Burnett while covering the winter meetings in Las Vegas:

Cashman also met Tuesday with free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett. The Yankees are preparing a four-year, $64 million offer to Burnett, hoping to top the four-year, $60 million deal the Braves offered him. They'd like to sign both Sabathia and Burnett (or Derek Lowe, if Burnett goes elsewhere) and may not stop there.

Newsday also suggests the Yankees may look to better the Braves:

The Braves' offer is believed to be for four years and $60-million with a vesting option. A Yankees source said, "We can do better." And they plan to. That will likely mean guaranteeing the fifth year of the pact.

I've said many times that I like Burnett's AL East track record but his injury history is being glossed over. I LOVE Burnett at 3 years, like at 4, hate at 5. That's my range on Burnett. For Sheets (and Lowe), it's LOVE at 1 year, like at 2, hate at 3.

Buster reporting: it IS about the money, stupid

Just saw on Mike & Mike on ESPN2: Buster Olney reported that the Sabathia deal is for SEVEN years and $160 million, or $22.857 million per year.

Um, wow. Just wow. Thankfully he's just 28 now because by 35 (or sooner) and some 20 extra pounds, this might be really ugly. Go ahead, Sox fans, rip the guy apart. But look me in the eye and tell me if you would be doing the same ripping if he were coming to Boston. It's only natural. Besides, it's only money.

Loyal reader TadtheBad used the right word: rationalizing. All NYY fans are rationalizing this deal this morning. And anti-Yanks "fans" are doing the same on the other side of the fence.

Ken Rosenthal confirms Buster's report:

Free-agent left-hander CC Sabathia has reached agreement with the Yankees on a seven-year contract worth approximately $160 million, according to a major-league source.

UPDATE (12pm 12/10/08): Update on Sabathia's fine print

The deal, according to a source close to negotiations, gives Sabathia the right to opt out of the contract after the first three years, by which time he will have been paid $69 million. Sabathia appreciated the clause because it satisfied concerns he had about living in New York and the impact it might have on his wife and three children.

He will make his opt-out decision after the 2011 season with four years and $92 million remaining on the deal, at which time he could renegotiate, leave or stay.

Surprise: it IS about the money after all

So it's happening: Sabathia's coming to New York. So it's about the money after all, eh?

After three straight days of face-to-face meetings between GM Brian Cashman and Sabathia, the big lefty decided he wants to spend the next six years of his career as a Yankee. The decision came late last night after Cashman flew to see Sabathia at his home in San Francisco. By the time the meeting was concluded, Sabathia had informed the New York Yankees that he had made his decision to call New York his baseball home, the Post has learned.

Jayson Stark posted this last night, before we learned that Sabathia appears to be headed to NY:

It was a visit, said one source familiar with the situation, that was "not about money."

"This is a guy trying to come to grips with New York and whether he can play there," the source said. "I think, in his mind, he's trying to get there. But he's not there yet." So Sabathia called the GM of the Yankees late Tuesday afternoon and invited him for another chat -- their third face-to-face visit in the past three days. Except this one included Amber Sabathia, the wife of CC and a woman who clearly has questions of her own about whether New York is right for both of them.
......
I asked another baseball man who has known Sabathia for years whether he thought CC could work himself into a New York state of mind, even for $140 million. The answer I got:

"Oh, he could play there. He could do it. CC is an amazing guy. There isn't anything he couldn't handle. But I don't think it would be his ideal scenario. Let's put it that way."

And the update from ESPN.com wire services updated a whole 5 minutes ago (at 8:42am):

While a deal is not done, the source said there are "zero major road blocks" that would prevent the Yankees from reaching agreement with the Yankees.

"He's now excited about becoming a Yankee," said one source.

The terms of the deal are still being negotiated, and it's possible that the final deal will look different than the six-year, $140 million contract that the Yankees initially dangled -- perhaps with another year in some form, perhaps with more salary.

Great line from IT IS HIGH, IT IS FAR... (emphasis mine)

Sounds like Cashman was the Lord of the Living Room last night, wooing Mrs. Sabathia and closing the deal with C.C.

More updates to come as I get to them (or you send them to me!)

20 years later: F*ckFace

Imagine that, twenty years have passed.

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian, then working for the Baltimore Sun, got to Ripken and Fleer first. Fleer's president Vincent Murray claimed that hadn't seen it before and that the company was doing all it could to correct the error immediately. Ripken told Kurkjian he was angry and disappointed.

"It appears I was targeted (by teammates)," Ripken told Kurkjian. "I know I'm kind of a jerk at times. I know I'm a little off. But this is going too far."

You'll have to click on the link above for the whole story, but it's a fun read.

Obligatory ARod/Madonna dreck and drivel

Reading this makes me feel dirty and seeing pictures of her makes my skin crawl.

"Alex and Madonna are very, very cozy," the insider reveals. "Yes, they are intimate, and they are intoxicated with one another. Alex can't get over that he's with Madonna."

But the insider has some sage words of wisdom for Rodriguez: "This isn't a deep and serious love affair. It will last as long as Madonna wants it to," our leak predicts. "She could get five or six years out of it - but only if it's in her best interest to keep him around."

Alex, this is NOT the Madonna of the late 80's/early 90's, dude. This is what you're waking up next to. And believe me, you have OPTIONS. Consider using them.

Bathroom humor never gets old

Funny (if you find this sorta thing funny, that is) thing posted by Pete Caldera today: Brian Cashman loves a good fart prank. Who knew?

Ben Sheets apparently met with Cashman today, after Cash played his annual prank on the writers at his suite. Cash used an electronic "whoopie'' cushion and couldn't hold back the laughter after nailing his first unsuspecting victim by remote (thankfully, it wasn't me). "It's day one,'' Comic Cash said. "I have to have teams calling to get a mock trade going,'' he said, referring to his Dallas Winter Meetings prank of placing a Ben Sheets (what irony) trade proposal on his desk, visible to the writers. On the scrap of paper, it had Wang and Cano going to Milwaukee.

Hendry pokes Cashman; plus Peavy stuff

I'm quite sure it wasn't intentional, but I chuckled reading this (emphasis mine):

"Honestly," [Cubs GM Jim] Hendry said, "it's my job … if you want to add significant dollars, then I should be able to move some, too. That's part of my job. It doesn't take a lot of creativity if you just spend the most money and buy the most expensive player all the time. As a general manager, I feel an obligation that if we want to do a few things -- instead of one thing or two things -- then we've got to get creative."

Zing!

And not for nothing, I still don't buy the "Peavy to the Cubs by Christmas or bust" stuff. If the Padres need to cut salary and we enter February, there's no reason why a trade can't be done then. Doesn't have to be with the Yanks (and leave my obsession alone, will ya!), but the need to free up cash is very real in San Diego.

And you wonder what that financial pressure looks like and why I so adamant that Peavy WILL be dealt:

One of the big questions hovering over that chat will be how much pressure the Padres are under to move Peavy, who is scheduled to make $11 million next season for a team whose payroll is in the midst of plummeting as close to $40 million as Towers can cut it.

"That will be tough," Towers said. "That's almost a quarter of our payroll. And it makes it tough to improve a great deal on the field. But I still consider Jake to be a tremendous asset. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. I'd much rather go into the season with a guy who's an established No. 1 [starter], and hopefully our young players are as good as we think they are, and improve that way, versus doing a poor baseball deal just because he's making a quarter of our payroll."

A quarter of their payroll. That's significant, dontchya think? If your salary was halved, wouldn't you do what you had to do to survive under the new conditions? And that BMW in your driveway.... time to get rid of it, even if it's in a deal that you KNOW favors the buyer. The Padres have become the MLB example of what the current economic crisis looks like. They are suffering through the equivalent of having just lost their job, their mortgage is about to adjust, they are mid-divorce. Not a position of negotiating strength. Time to sell the assets that they must in order to survive the New World Order.

Yanks pushing forward

While the Sabathia waiting game goes on, it seems the Yanks are getting ready to throw some bigtime loot around at the other top pitching free agents. It doesn't seem that this would preclude the Yanks from still offering Sabathia his golden ticket.

I'm not your source for every rumor (I'll defer to the more-than-able and adequately-staffed MLBTradeRumors.com for that), but here are the headlines on Burnett and Sheets:

• Yankees going full throttle after Burnett
  But another offer may be in the works for Burnett, as the Yankees are said to be willing to go beyond the reported four-year, $60 million offer the Braves have put forth, according to reports on ESPN.com and SI.com.
  ......
  "We're dealing with other free agents at the same time," Cashman said. "We hope to engage some clubs while we're here. Obviously, today is Day 1 and we have needs we have to fill. I can tell you we're not waiting, per se, for CC. We're trying to affect change in our roster in a positive way with quality additions, but it's just been a slow winter so far."
  
  
• Yankees Brewin' up multi-year offer for free agent Ben Sheets (The Daily News updated their dollar range; updated below)
  According to a source, the Yankees will offer Ben Sheets a multiyear deal - most likely for two years in the $26 million range - before the winter meetings conclude on Thursday

Sheets and Burnett. Tell me with certainty that this won't be another Wright and Pavano and I'll exhale. It's the extra year for Burnett that concerns me. I do like the 2 year term on Sheets.

Could the Yanks really land both Sheets and Burnett, lose out on Sabathia, and then decide to go for Lowe? Sheets, Burnett and Lowe. Probably for something in the same total price as Sabathia alone. Though, what if the Yanks land Sheets (or Burnett) before CC makes up his mind? Would that help sway the Big Guy?