Joba's 2009 workload, predicted

After a weekend of book sneak-peeks that made me equally disappointed and disgusted, I'm chomping at the bit for some real baseball "stuff". Anything really that discusses the on-field product for this coming season.

So when I noticed this article about Joba's predicted 2009 innings, I couldn't help but consider it a beacon that Spring Training is indeed less than three weeks away. I can't wait. This comes from MLBTradeRumors.com leader Tim Dierkes' article on RotoAuthority:

I asked eleven of my favorite baseball writers to predict Chamberlain's 2009 regular season Major League innings total. Here are the results:

• Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus: 175

  Peter Abraham, The Lohud Journal: 160

  Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports: 155

  Peter Gammons, ESPN: 145

  Joe Pawlikowski, River Ave. Blues: 142

  Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 142

  Ken Davidoff, Newsday: 141.6

  Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report: 140

  Rob Neyer, ESPN: 137.6

  Keith Law, ESPN: 125

  Jon Heyman, SI: 109

  The average comes to 142.9 innings.

If Joba pitches 143 innings as a starter (which isn't mentioned above), that roughly translates to 24 six-inning starts, or 29 starts of 5 innings. From LAST year's Verducci Year-After-Effect article, Joba's limit was 149 innings. I think I'd be pleased with 150 quality innings from Joba and fill in the balance with kids from the farm (Aceves, etc.). If Joba makes it to the 100, 125 inning marks unscathed and feeling strong, I'd let him expand his target. He's got the body to do so.

I continue to maintain that Joba's got the most value for the Yanks as a starter, at least until Mo retires. Then, if Joba's still struggling to maintain a 200 inning workload at that point, he could be transitioned into Mo's replacement (unless there's some kid --Melancon?-- who identifies himself as the heir apparent).