Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Peavy available?

According to Buster Olney on Mike & Mike In The Morning today, Peavy might be available. And it made me swerve my car into oncoming traffic. (SEE UPDATE AT BOTTOM)

I've had several discussions/debates with my brother, father, even some of you via email about what to do this off-season. The one thing I kept proposing, and my San Diego-based brother kept shooting down, was the idea of dealing Cano, Melky and a pitcher or two to the Padres for Jake Peavy. Or in other words, the same players asked for in the Johan deal last off-season.

"Will never happen" was something my bro would say, that Peavy's as much a face of the organization as Hoffman. Except I disagreed. Still do.
  • 2010: $15M
  • 2011: $16M
  • 2012: $17M
  • 2013: $22M club option ($4M buyout)
And it's been mentioned several times, notably by Buster a month ago:
The Padres are likely to cut their payroll -- which was about $74 million at the outset of the 2008 season -- to something in the range of $50 million for next year. The $9 million option of Brian Giles will probably be declined, with the Padres fielding an outfield of Jody Gerut, Venable and Chase Headley.
Does it make sense for ANY team to put roughly one-third of their payroll in one pitcher, or if you add in what Hoffman might make, 45% tied up in two pitchers? Absolutely not.

I think the Yanks SHOULD do what it takes to get Peavy as I still don't think Sabathia will choose to don the pinstripes. This is different than Johan in that Peavy's already signed for 4 years, if you include the option year for HALF of what it would cost to sign Sabathia and/or Johan. Half. Peavy is only 27 years old. He won the NL Cy Young award last year. He slogged thru 27 starts this year, dinged up a bit, but still posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 166 K's in 173.2 IP. His 10-11 W/L record is testament to the quality of the Padres this year, not his efforts.

Cost and control without an onerous contract length. I like it.

What about the gaping 2B hole, you ask? I'd call Orlando Hudson immediately and get him in a hurry. He's a high energy guy with Gold Glove defense. He'd be a welcome boost for this team and he's only 30 years old. Otherwise, if there are no kids on the farm, I'd look at a Nick Punto or even Mark Ellis for two years.

Look, I am a big Cano fan but if you can get Peavy, you get Peavy and deal with the consequences of backfilling 2B whereever and however you can.

And while I knew he'd never answer it, I actually proposed this very idea to Paul DePodesta in my list of questions that I sent him as part of the interview I did with him. He declined to answer that one, but with The Guy Upstairs as my witness, I did ask him about Peavy and trading him if payroll dropped, even so much as suggesting players from the Yanks.

UPDATE (10/1/08, 12:35pm): Here's the juice from Buster's blog:
Jake Peavy, Padres: He won the 2007 Cy Young Award and posted a solid 10-11 record with a 2.85 ERA, with 166 strikeouts in 173 2/3 innings this season. He is under contract for the next four seasons, at salaries of $8 million, $15 million, $16 million and $17 million (with a $22 million option for 2013). But he has become increasingly vocal in his frustration with the Padres, and with the team reducing its payroll to something in the neighborhood of $50 million this year, Peavy's salary will increasingly become top-heavy within the San Diego budget. General manager Kevin Towers has been quoted as saying that the Padres have no untouchable players, and there are executives who say they think Peavy could be taken for the right package of prospects. Peavy has a full no-trade clause and would have to agree to any deal.

Now, I think if the Yanks (or anyone, really) come and make a strong offer to Towers, plus agree to guarantee the option year for Peavy to waive his NTC, it can be done.

It makes zero fiscal sense to tie up that much of your available resources in one asset. If the team will stink with him, it can stink without him. But it could be better positioned to recover quicker if Peavy's dealt for a bevy of MLB-ready players.


Little Bro said...

As Little Bro, I still don't see it happening. I am totally up for it, as I was up for anything for Johan. I would have done Hughes and Kennedy and Melky last year for Johan and he is a once-in-a-decade type of guy. Like getting Clemens in 88, Unit in 96, Pedro in 2003, Ryan anytime in the 60's-80's!

While I don't see it happening, I am TOTALLY in support of it. Even if that means Cano & Hughes.

We can't rely on Jeter and Arod being the core of this team. We need an ace we haven't had since Rocket, Cone, etc of the late 90's.
Peavy isn't Johan, but he's

tHeMARksMiTh said...

Peavy is pretty awesome, but I'm not sure Melky and Cano would get it done now. Gerut just proved his worth (although he probably won't next year) and my guess it that they'll try to keep him around next year. Cano might be an upgrade over Antonelli, but I don't think his trade value is very high right now. If I were the Padres, I'd take more of a Gardner, Cano, Hughes deal, but is that too much to give up?

e-5 said...

Peavy is the right guy if he'll come. The trading parts can be expanded on any secondary level; Gardner, a reliever, name it. Fill in what you need through free agency and the farm...not that many needs to cover outside of pitching. Guys like Abreu are not that hard to keep with his consistant offense (time to put one of the OF at 1st and DH).

tHeMARksMiTh said...

I guess the real bad news is that just about everyone and their mother will be in on him, making it more diffcult ot get him.

bigjf said...

I couldn't agree more with this post. If you can actually get Peavy, go do it. Then see if you can't sign CC as well. I'd be fine with Orlando Hudson as well if it means Cano in a package for Peavy.

Jason @ IIATMS said...

Mark: I am sure everyone will be interested but the fact still remains that Peavy's extension will cost, on average, $16M for the first three years before the Club Option. And, Peavy may want that $22M option exercised in order for him waive his NTC. That thins the interested parties.

If I were Cashman and I were presented with a Gardner (or Melky), Cano, Hughes deal for Peavy, I'd probably take it. I still believe in Hughes and he MIGHT become Peavy some day, but Peavy already IS Peavy.

The length of the committment (4 years) is perfect and the cost is acceptable. Peavy's a bulldog and I could see him enjoying the day-to-day wars with the AL East.

I'm with you BigJF! Go get Peavy and then have him sell Sabathia as co-anchors. How filthy would a Sabathia-Peavy-Joba-Wang foursome with the possiblility of a 20 game winner as your #5 (Moose). Expensive, you betchya, but what the hell! Let the suits in the luxe boxes pay for it!