Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Peavy Sweepstakes update

If you believe the writers, the Cardinals are out as are the Astros. That leaves the Dodgers, Cubs and the Braves as the three likely NL landing spots for Peavy.

Re: The Cardinals:

According to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are not a serious player for Jake Peavy. Miklasz's Cardinals sources downplayed the idea and noted that they've only had one conversation with the Padres.
Re: The Astros:
Peavy's first choice, according to the MLB.com source, is Houston, but it is unlikely that the Astros have enough Minor League talent to offer the Padres, who are seeking starting pitching and, possibly, a center fielder.
I don't believe the Cubs have the depth to deal to get Peavy, especially after dealing young/cheap talent to land Harden. They could send Pie, a disappointing Rich Hill and a bunch of others, but I can't see that being the winning bid. I admittedly am not fluent in the Cubs farm system so if any Cubbies fans can put together a deal that you think works, email me.

The Dodgers clearly have the goods and they will have to overpay to get the Padres to agree to deal him inter-division. Package some prospects with Kemp. Kemp and Billingsley (they'd never do that!)...?

The Braves seem to have some talent to get the deal done but are the reluctant to do so? Seems that way.
With such attractive prospects as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen and Jordan Schafer, the Braves have the ability to put together a blockbuster package to land Peavy.

But right now they're obviously reluctant to put too many of those pieces in the same package. Thus it appears that they'll remain patient until it becomes apparent exactly what it would take to bring Peavy to Atlanta.
If the Braves are unwilling to part with Hanson, Schafer and maybe Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, will the Padres look to the AL and present Peavy with his options.

I still claim the Yanks/Sox/Angels are not out of it until the ink is down on the trade paperwork elsewhere.

UPDATE (10/21/08, 9:41am): Update courtesy of Buster:
There may be other considerations, as well, Axelrod said, without elaborating. But Peavy certainly would have the leverage to extract more guaranteed money from his next team. Players in a similar situation as he is in have asked that a contractual option be exercised in return for waiving a no-trade clause, and Peavy has a $22 million option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout; he could just ask for more money in the buyout.

Another factor for Peavy to consider, Axelrod said, is what other types of moves the Padres make in the weeks ahead -- what moves are made to improve the team, or if there are more cutbacks. No matter what he ultimately decides that he wants, Peavy will hold the hammer that could break apart the trade talks.

Yet again, I assert that if the only thing separating Peavy from the AL is monetary concessions, that's not a hurdle that can't be cleared. If more money is all Peavy is looking for --in the way of guarantees, additional years, etc.-- then the Yanks will meet his demands. The only question that I can't yet answer is if Hughes is the dealbreaker for the Yanks.

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