Peavy: scared or smart?

By now, everyone's aware of Peavy's decision to stay in the comfy expanses of the wonderful land of San Diego. [I case you are new here, I've spent umpteen hours discussing Peavy and why a trade is not only inevitable, but necessary for the franchise.] There are a few reasonable reasons for this decision that I can consider:

1. He loves SD too much to leave / His family does not want to leave
2. He really likes to bat 3-6 times a week
3. He knows how great a pitcher's park Petco really is
4. He knows how much of a hitter's park US Cellular Field is, especially for FB pitchers
5. He's flat out scared about pitching in the AL on a full time basis

Let's scratch the surface on these points, shall we?

1. He loves SD too much to leave / His family does not want to leave
   
   Honestly, I couldn't agree with this idea more. Having family out in SD, I can completely and utterly understand a desire to stay out West. The climate is flat-out fantastic, unless you hate 73 degrees and sun every day. Spare me your "oh, I'll miss the seasons" or "isn't that boring?" crap. NO! Perfect weather is NOT boring. You know what sucks: Snow, cold rain in the Fall, sleet, black ice, days straight of rain. You know what doesn't suck? San Diego weather. Because of the weather, kids are outside more and so are adults, biking, playing ball and simply enjoying life. Why? Because they are not shuttered in due to the */+$%$^&* weather!!! Is this clear?
   
   
2. He really likes to bat 3-6 times a week
   
   I call BS. It's a convenient excuse. You know who else likes to bat? Sabathia and he let it go because the price was right. Holding up a trade from a cellar dwelling team because you want to swing the bat is stupid. Take extra BP, OK?



3. He knows how great a pitcher's park Petco really is
   
   I think this is absolutely true. If you need some proof, look here. In 2008, it was the best pitcher's park. THE BEST PITCHERS PARK IN THE MAJORS. Guess what? It was the best pitcher's park in 2007, too! It was the 2nd best in 2006. The BEST in 2005. Third best in 2004. Get the point? It's big and plays big. It supresses HR's and helps fly ball pitchers. Ya know what else? Peavy is a FB pitcher!



4. He knows how much of a hitter's park US Cellular Field is, especially for FB pitchers
   
   The converse of Petco is US Cellular. US Cellular's rank over the last few years (the higher the number, the more of hitter's park it is):
   2008: #4
   2007: #9
   2006: #9
   2005: #9
   2004: #3



5. He's flat out scared about pitching in the AL on a full time basis
   
   I can kid about Peavy really being scared because that's how it all looks. He looks wimpy as hell for not taking on the challenge, choosing to languish in last place while posting great personal stats. Here's the thing: He's already landed the rich multi-year contract and would likely have his agent demand his big option year be picked up in advance. So what's to worry about? Well, maybe he figures if he pitches a dozen years in sunny SD, raking up delicious stats, he can skate into the HOF....but if he turns into a human BP pitcher, serving up HR's like mad, he won't have a chance.
   
   I don't really think he's scared because every account of Jake and his personality is one of a bulldog, not a shrinking violet. But he looks scared.

Aaron Gleeman had a nice discussion about Peavy's home/away splits over at Circling The Bases:

Going from Petco Park in the National League to U.S. Cellular Field in the American League is just about the biggest change in environment that a fly-ball pitcher like Peavy could experience, and there's plenty of reason to wonder whether he'd be a dominant, Cy Young-caliber starter for the White Sox.
[...]
Like most fly-ball pitchers Peavy is prone to serving up homers, but Petco Park has essentially erased half of his long balls. Knowing that his home ballpark turns so many fly balls into outs rather than homers has also allowed Peavy to pitch more aggressively, totaling 21 percent more strikeouts and 22 percent fewer walks at Petco Park. Add it all up and his ERA has been 2.71 at Petco Park and 3.71 everywhere else.

Now, most pitchers fare better at home, so the full-run difference isn't quite as dramatic as it appears, but the point remains. Peavy has been a much different, far more effective pitcher at Petco Park. And not only would a trade to the White Sox take him away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, it would put him at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field in a league that features the designated hitter and arguably superior overall competition.

This is spot-on.

Now, if the "real truth" (which we will never know) is that his wife and family don't want to leave and/or have something against Chicago (despite his willingness to be traded to the Cubs during the off-season), I will understand it. And if you listen to Peavy's comments, that's precisely what he's saying:

“San Diego is the best place for us, right this second,” Peavy said before tonight’s game against San Francisco.

Can't blame him, actually.

Though, "...right this second" is, to me, is a euphamism for "until some other NL team steps up to the plate, I am looking at you Cubbies".