Friday, May 22, 2009

Some HR data to ponder

Courtesy of Jayson Stark's latest column:

Those home runs might be flying. But we're hearing that the Yankees don't plan to make any firm judgments on the home run propensity of the new Yankee Stadium until after the summer breezes kick in and the old stadium is dismantled.

The club has been told by its engineers that when the old park is out of the way, the wind currents off the East River should hit the new stadium differently and actually reduce home runs.

In the meantime, we've studied the home run data over at And even though the new stadium has proved to be 55 percent easier to hit a home run in than the average park, data shows the wind effect might be less dramatic than popularly believed. For instance:

Of the 70 outside-the-park home runs hit at the new park through Wednesday, only three were estimated to have carried an additional 10 feet or more because of wind. And all three were hit on the same day (April 18).

Only 12 homers were estimated to have carried an extra 5 feet or more because of the wind (four of those 12 were just hit Tuesday and Wednesday, by the way) -- but seven actually had their distance knocked down by 5 feet or more because they were hit into the wind.

And of those 70 home runs, 27 would have been home runs in all 30 parks in baseball, 43 would have been homers in at least 25 of the 30 parks and all but 18 would have been home runs in at least 20 of the 30 parks. Just two were judged to have been homers only in Yankee Stadium.

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