Monday, December 22, 2008

Quick thoughts on Manny, Teix

There are some interesting reports out there today that I could only call misinformation. Once there are some more concrete things to discuss, I'll dive deeper. But for now, let's just quickly mention the two hot topics du jour.

  1. Manny expects a 3 year offer from the Yanks in the neighborhood of $75m dollars. If this happens, I might have to auction off my allegiance to this team. Manny also expects the Tooth Fairy to arrive, the Easter Bunny to bring him chocolates and Santa to be readying his sled for his Wednesday night run.
  2. The Angels have reported backed out of the Teixeira 'sweepstakes' for feeling used. I love Arte Moreno, but he's sounding awfully sensitive here. There's no way the Nats or Orioles end up Teix unless they come in with an over-the-top offer like the Yanks had to do to get CC. The Sox, despite claiming "not to be major factors" in this, WILL in fact be major factors. Unless the Yanks decide to get more piggish (which many didn't think possible), I don't see them landing Teix. Boras reportedly told Cashman it would take eight years and $180 million to $185 million to sign Teixeira. That's ridiculous. I would LOVE to have Teix --who wouldn't?-- but at some point, don't you have to say no? I mean, I'd love a Maserati, but it's just out of my fiscal reach. [Maybe more than "just", towards the area of "way".]

    I can see Cashman & Co. making a strong offer (8 years, $21m per) as their "first and final" offer. If the Sox want to reach for 8 years and $180m on what amounts to a luxury item for them, power to them. If you have to trade your WS MVP who has 2 years and have to eat much of the $24m he's still owned in order to add Teixeira, then that's a luxury. Face it. I might have to dust off my Evil Empire II rant.

: From Buster's blog today:

The Yankees made an initial offer that was believed to be markedly less than what the other offers have been, and since then they have withdrawn that offer. They are pushing to cut their payroll in 2009, and they cannot sign Teixeira and accomplish that unless they could dump the contract of Hideki Matsui and others, in a market flush with corner outfielders. Their focus continues to be on starting pitching, and at some point they could re-engage a free agent who could come cheaply.
And that brings us back to the Red Sox, who sources say were prepared to pay Teixeira something in the range of $170 million to $175 million as club executives flew to Texas, and who might be nudged to $180 million. But they seem to be talking at the idea of throwing out a $200 million deal to the first baseman.

Here's a number to keep in mind: $189 million. That's the value of the contract signed by Derek Jeter after the 2000 season. Scott Boras, Teixeira's agent, is very aware of benchmarks, and so a $190 million contract would surpass Jeter's deal in total dollars.

Does Teixeira really have lots of offers for more than what the Red Sox are offering? Clearly, Boston doesn't think so. Only Boras knows for sure.

It seems that the game has played itself out, the last cards have been dealt, and now Teixeira is in position to make his decision.


Alex K said...

If the Yanks would offer 8 years $21 million a year why not just bump it up another $1.5 million a year and make the 8/$180 offer? If it's only going to take that "small" amount I say go for it.

I'm not sure about the numbers, would this push their payroll over last year with existing contract increases and new contracts?

Jason @ IIATMS said...


I wrote that and debated even writing it. Thanks for calling it out. I can't argue going the extra $1.5m/yr to get him and keep him out of Boston.

And no, they'd still be under last year's payroll even with Teix on board.

They took some $88m off the roster before this season. Then you add back about $40m for AJ and CC. Factor in some $20m in arb increases and contractual increases (just my estimate) and there's still somewhere between $20-$30m of headroom left.

Alex K said...

Thanks Jason.

tadthebad said...

What 2 years? Option years for Manny, memba?

Full of piss and vinegar this AM or what? Where's your holiday spirit?

Jason @ IIATMS said...

Holiday spirit is all good, Tad. I'm feeling great. But the thought of a 3 year deal on Manny made my head hurt this AM!

tadthebad said...

Can you imagine ARod and Manny on the same team...whew, talk about filling the roster with head cases. I am laughing as I think about Manny in the Bronx for 3 years! I will laugh harder if it actually happens. All I can say is, enjoy...he will provide moments of both amazing production and amazing thoughtlessness. It really is something to behold.

Jason @ IIATMS said...

Tad, I know. I can see Girardi going bonkers over MbM.

Where would the dreads go? In the beanie under the hat?

Alex K said...

Are the Sox going to bid against themselves now? Or do they have to pay a extra for his services? I remember seeing somewhere that Teix doesn't care for the Sox because of something that happened between them when he came out of high school.

tadthebad said...

Alex: Previous ownership.

On that note, has there ever been such a dramatic paradigm shift as the Boston Red Sox before and after Henry et al. bought the club? Under the Yawkey Trust the Sox were prehistoric; now they're cutting edge.

Jason @ IIATMS said...

Alex, you are correct. Teix turned down a $1.5M offer from the prev Sox administration and then fell thru the draft. He felt that the Sox blackmailed him. And he ended up at G.Tech.

Whomever he was holding a grudge against is long gone.

Maybe he still doesn't 'want' to play for Boston if a competing offer emerges, but if they are the highest bidder, that's probably where he goes.

dinologic (Dean D) said...

My thoughts on Teix:

I don't think upping the offer to match the Sox is being piggish at all. Like you said, they'd still be at or below last year's payroll. 8 years is a huge contract and plugs up a position that is a haven for sluggers who lose a step defensively (Arod, Jeter, Posada, etc...eventual 1B candidates) BUT, he's young and he plays a good all-around game. In the recent past, they've signed players to big money deals knowing that they were future DH types or clearly headed for the downside.

My thoughts on Manny:
3 years is too much, without a doubt. I just don't trust him to stay motivated for that long. BUT, I could see him staying motivated for the 1st year. To have the chance to compete against the Sox and stick it in their face? Could there be anything he'd want more?

The problem is, after that year, I can see it fading. Plus, he'll be in his hometown which could be kind of dangerous. The only possible saving grace could be if he intends on playing after the contract expires. If so, that could motivate him to put some effort into the 3rd year.

Alex K said...

He could still use it as leverage though. I wouldn't put it past Boras to tell the team Mark still holds a small grudge from what happened before and if they want him they are going to have to pay just a little extra. Didn't the Yanks do a similar thing with CC and that 7th year?