Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Your 2009 YAE Nominees are....

Without further ado, Tom Verducci's 2009 Year After Effect nominees are (I tried to make this larger but that's the best I could do. Click on it to get a bigger view):

Says Verducci:

Last year I red-flagged seven pitchers: Jimenez, Gorzelanny, Ian Kennedy (Yankees), Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays), Chad Gaudin (Cubs), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) and Fausto Carmona (Indians). Except for Jimenez all of them broke down with injuries -- some of them serious, not all arm-related -- and combined to go 29-32. None won 10 games. Previous blowouts that were red-flagged included Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Anibal Sanchez, Adam Loewen and Scott Mathieson.

What does that mean for the 10 red flags for 2009? Don't panic, though Cole Hamels, whose elbow was barking in spring training, isn't completely out of the woods just yet. When I talked with Boston pitching coach John Farrell this spring about the Year After Effect on Lester, for instance, Farrell insisted that he has no worries whatsoever about the left-hander. Farrell said Lester is bigger, stronger and throwing harder than he did a year ago. "His progression has been everything you look for," Farrell said.

Like Pelfrey, Lester has age (he turned 25 in January) and size (6-2, 200) on his side. The red flags seem riskier for pitchers such as Hamels (slight build, mild injury history), Tim Lincecum (famously slight build) and Clayton Kershaw (age 21). Indeed, the entire Los Angeles Dodgers season might be riding on this list, with the club counting heavily on Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.
Great stuff. I can't wait to see this develop.


Ron Rollins said...

There's still no proof that any of that has to do with innings pitched.

When they show the reverse chart, of the guys who increased their innings and didn't get hurt, and compare them side-by-side, I'll be willing to listen.

Until then, it doesn't mean anything. A stat is just a number without another number to go with it.

lar said...

Except for Jimenez all of them broke down with injuries -- some of them serious, not all arm-related...

Gallardo missed most the season because he tore his ACL in a collision while running over to cover first base. That doesn't exactly fit in with the "Year After Effect".

The concept is intriguing and seems to make sense, but it's far from proven yet.

Josh said...

Two Mets on this list....not good.

Stay healthy, Pelf!